Thu 11 Jun · Marvel Stadium · 7:30pm AEST
Round 13 is in the books. Fremantle put 155 on the Roos in Bunbury for a 124-point demolition - Dockers (12-1) clear on top. Adelaide pinched a 1-point thriller against Geelong at the Crows den. Brisbane belted Gold Coast by 31 in the QClash, Carlton edged Essendon by 5 in front of 76,745, and Melbourne won King's Birthday by 8 with 88,019 watching. Sydney escaped St Kilda by 2, Port pipped the Eagles by 6 in Perth, Bulldogs came back from 29 down to beat Hawthorn by 6.
Round 14 has seven games and four byes: Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle and Collingwood rest. The model is massively Overs-heavy: six of seven totals flagged with two above 38%. Melbourne vs Essendon Over 163.5 at the MCG Saturday 1:15pm is the standout total at 38.8% edge (model 198.4). North Melbourne vs West Coast Over 165.5 at Optus is right behind at 38.0% (model 199.5).
Sydney +17.5 against Port at Adelaide Oval is the biggest spread edge at 15.0% (model has Swans by 31). Richmond vs Brisbane Over 180.5 at Bellerive (Ninja Stadium) is a strong third total at 22.4%. R13 was the model's worst week - only 2 of 10 edges hit. Regression coming.
Our highest-confidence plays for Round 14, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value. (Bye: Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle, Collingwood.)
Port Adelaide vs Sydney
Adelaide Oval Saturday night. Model has Sydney winning by 31 against a market line of +17.5 - a 15.0% spread edge on the Swans. Sydney off a 2-point escape over the Saints, Port off an upset 6-point win over the Eagles at Optus.
Full Analysis →
Melbourne / Essendon Over 163.5
A 38.8% edge tops the board. Model total 198.4 vs market 163.5 - a 34.9-point gap. Dees coming off the King's Birthday win, Bombers 1-12 and bleeding scoring. MCG Saturday 1:15pm.
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 14. Seven matches with four byes (Hawthorn, Carlton, Fremantle, Collingwood). The model has crunched form, disposals, contested possessions, scoring efficiency, and 50+ other variables.
38.8% edge. Model total 198.4 vs market line 163.5 at the MCG Saturday afternoon. Dees off the King's Birthday win, Bombers 1-12 and on a 7-match losing streak.
38.0% edge. Model total 199.5 vs market 165.5. North in Perth at Optus Stadium for their second Western Australia trip in a fortnight. Eagles 4-9 after losing to Port at home.
Fremantle clear at the top after a 124-point demolition of North in Bunbury. Sydney 11-2 in second on 147.3% after Saints scare. Dockers and Swans on bye-free runs.
Sydney +17.5 at 15.0% edge - model has Swans by 31 in Adelaide. Over 165.5 also flagged at 20.4%. Port off the West Coast win, Swans pinched the Saints by 2 in the last minute.
After Round 11 - Updated 25 May 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle
|
11 | 10 | 1 | 40 | 135.4% | WWWWW |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
11 | 9 | 2 | 36 | 142.1% | LWWWW |
| 3 |
Geelong
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 124.4% | WWWLW |
| 4 |
Hawthorn
|
11 | 7 | 3-1 | 30 | 110.4% | WLLDW |
| 5 |
Gold Coast
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 116.9% | LWLWL |
| 6 |
Melbourne
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 106.6% | LWWLW |
| 7 |
Brisbane
|
11 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 111.6% | LLWWW |
| 8 |
Adelaide
|
11 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 108.0% | LWLLW |
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11-14 June 2026
Top contenders - updated 29 April 2026.
Round 13 was the model's worst week of the year. Fremantle put 155 on the Roos in Bunbury for a 124-point demolition (Dockers now 12-1). Adelaide stunned Geelong by 1 point at Adelaide Oval - Crows' first scalp of a top-six contender. Brisbane belted Gold Coast by 31 in the QClash, Melbourne won King's Birthday by 8 in front of 88,019. The Overs got smoked - Adelaide/Geelong (149), Hawthorn/Bulldogs (148), Gold Coast/Brisbane (181) and Coll/Melb (158) all missed despite four edges above 23%. Only Sydney/St Kilda Over 185.5 (15.8%) and North/Fremantle Over 178.5 cashed. Net for the week: 2/10 edges, brutal.
W Bulldogs
Port Adelaide
