Sat 6 Jun · Hands Oval · 2:15pm AEST
Round 12 is done. Sydney put 170 on Richmond at the SCG for a 114-point demolition, Hawthorn smashed St Kilda by 52 at Marvel, and GWS belted Melbourne by 49 in Alice Springs. Carlton stunned Geelong by 4 at the MCG, the Dogs edged the Pies by 4 at Marvel. West Coast snuck home over Essendon by 30 in the Perth wet. Fremantle (11-1) hold top after another road win at the Gabba, Sydney sit second at 10-2.
Round 13 has eight games across five days. GWS and Richmond bye. Team lists have firmed every Over - seven of the eight totals flagged with three above 23%. Adelaide vs Geelong Over 166.5 at Adelaide Oval Thursday night is the standout total at 28.4% edge (model 189.4 - line shortened 3 points after teamlists). Gold Coast vs Brisbane Over 188.5 at the QClash second at 26.8% (model 209.8). Hawthorn vs Bulldogs Over 175.5 at the MCG third at 23.5% (model 193.8).
Collingwood -0.5 against Melbourne at the King's Birthday Big Freeze 12 is the biggest spread edge at 15.4% (model has Pies by 13.4) - line shortened from -1.5 making this near-even money. Sydney -30.0 against St Kilda at the SCG runs second at 14.4% (model Swans by 43). Spreads have flattened, Overs got bigger.
Our highest-confidence plays for Round 13, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value. (Bye: GWS, Richmond.)
Collingwood vs Melbourne
Big Freeze 12 at the MCG Monday afternoon. Model has Collingwood winning by 13.4 against a market line of -0.5 - line shortened to pick'em with a 15.4% spread edge on the Pies. Total now posted at 180.5 with model at 192.0 - also a 15.4% edge on the Over.
Full Analysis →
Adelaide / Geelong Over 169.5
A 28.4% edge tops the board after team lists. Model total 189.4 vs market 166.5 - a 22.9-point gap. Crows off the bye, Cats off a heartbreaking 4-point loss to Carlton at the MCG. Adelaide Oval Thursday night.
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 13. The model has crunched form, disposals, contested possessions, scoring efficiency, and 50+ other variables across the eight matches on the slate this week.
28.4% edge. Model total 189.4 vs market line 166.5 at Adelaide Oval Thursday night. Line shortened 3 points after teamlists. Cats off a shock 4-point loss to Carlton, Crows off the bye and rested.
Big Freeze 12 at the MCG Monday afternoon. Coll -0.5 model edge 15.4%, model margin 13.4. Total Over 180.5 also flagged at 15.4%. Dees off a 49-point belting from GWS in Alice Springs.
Fremantle (11-1, 135.2%) hold top after another road win at the Gabba. Sydney at 10-2 with 152.4% percentage - league best for scoring.
Over 188.5 at 26.8% edge. Model total 209.8 at People First Stadium Saturday twilight. Suns off the bye, Lions off a 25-point loss to Freo.
After Round 11 - Updated 25 May 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle
|
11 | 10 | 1 | 40 | 135.4% | WWWWW |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
11 | 9 | 2 | 36 | 142.1% | LWWWW |
| 3 |
Geelong
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 32 | 124.4% | WWWLW |
| 4 |
Hawthorn
|
11 | 7 | 3-1 | 30 | 110.4% | WLLDW |
| 5 |
Gold Coast
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 116.9% | LWLWL |
| 6 |
Melbourne
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 28 | 106.6% | LWWLW |
| 7 |
Brisbane
|
11 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 111.6% | LLWWW |
| 8 |
Adelaide
|
11 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 108.0% | LWLLW |
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4-8 June 2026
Top contenders - updated 29 April 2026.
Round 12 had three landslides. Sydney put 170 on Richmond at the SCG for a 114-point belting - the Swans' biggest win of the season. Hawthorn smashed St Kilda by 52 at Marvel and GWS shocked Melbourne by 49 in Alice Springs (the Dees now four straight losses in the Red Centre). West Coast snuck home over Essendon by 30 in the Perth wet, Fremantle climbed to top with a 25-point win at the Gabba. Carlton stunned Geelong by 4 at the MCG, Dogs beat the Pies by 4. Sydney -60.5 cashed beautifully and St Kilda/Hawthorn went Over 180.5. The two biggest Overs (West Coast/Essendon 43.2% and Carlton/Geelong 24.5%) both went Under. 3 of 8 edges landed.
