Geelong Cats vs Gold Coast Suns
GMHBA Stadium
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Geelong vs Gold Coast, Round 14 2026
Geelong Cats 1-3 in last 4. At GMHBA Stadium, the model sees Geelong winning. Model total 195.9 vs market 179.5. Over 179.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 179.5. Our model puts it at 195.9, a 16.4-point gap. That is a 21.4% edge on the Over 179.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
Geelong Cats
Team news not yet available.
Gold Coast Suns
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Geelong
Geelong hold a Disposals advantage: 397.8 vs 366 per game.
Last 5 Results
Geelong
Gold Coast
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | GF | Gold Coast Suns | 125 - 69 | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast | W | O |
| 2025 | R13 | Geelong Cats | 61 - 37 | Gold Coast Suns | Geelong | W | U |
| 2024 | R10 | Gold Coast Suns | 164 - 100 | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast | W | O |
| 2023 | R3 | Gold Coast Suns | 73 - 54 | Geelong Cats | Gold Coast | W | U |
Geelong Cats 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Gold Coast win 125 - 69 at Gold Coast in R0 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W W. Geelong are on two straight losses. Averaging 100.8 scored and 77.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 397.8. Their home record 7-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W W. Gold Coast are on two straight losses. Averaging 90.0 scored and 82.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.8. Their away record 1-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rioli | Gold Coast Suns | U20.5 | 15.0 | 23.6 | UNDER -5.5 |
| Max Holmes | Geelong Cats | U28.5 | 23.1 | 29.8 | UNDER -5.4 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O23.5 | 27.9 | 24.6 | OVER +4.4 |
| Tanner Bruhn | Geelong Cats | U20.5 | 17.0 | 20.4 | UNDER -3.5 |
| Touk Miller | Gold Coast Suns | U23.5 | 20.3 | 24.2 | UNDER -3.2 |
| Tom Atkins | Geelong Cats | O17.5 | 20.3 | 16.6 | OVER +2.8 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 179.5 | 179.5 | $1.88 | 21.4% edge | Strong | Model total 195.9 vs market 179.5. Gap: 16.4 points. |
| Prop | Daniel Rioli Under 20.5 | 20.5 | N/A | 5.5% edge | None | Model has Daniel Rioli at 15.0 vs line 20.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Geelong vs Gold Coast
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Other Round 14 Tips
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