Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers
MCG
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Melbourne vs Essendon, Round 14 2026
Melbourne Demons 1-3 in last 4. At the MCG, the model sees Melbourne winning. Model total 198.4 vs market 163.5. Over 163.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 163.5. Our model puts it at 198.4, a 34.9-point gap. That is a 38.8% edge on the Over 163.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
Melbourne Demons
Team news not yet available.
Essendon Bombers
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Melbourne
Essendon hold a Disposals advantage: 373.4 vs 355.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Melbourne
Essendon
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Essendon Bombers | 113 - 68 | Melbourne Demons | Essendon | W | O |
| 2025 | R5 | Melbourne Demons | 57 - 96 | Essendon Bombers | Essendon | L | U |
| 2024 | R18 | Melbourne Demons | 84 - 67 | Essendon Bombers | Melbourne | W | U |
| 2023 | R5 | Essendon Bombers | 104 - 77 | Melbourne Demons | Essendon | W | O |
Melbourne Demons 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Essendon win 113 - 68 at Essendon in R5 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: W L L W W. Melbourne are in mixed recent form. Averaging 92.4 scored and 87.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 355.8. Their home record 5-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Essendon are in the middle of a 8-game losing run. Averaging 65.6 scored and 87.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 48.4. Their away record 0-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | Melbourne Demons | U30.5 | 24.5 | 32.2 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Ed Langdon | Melbourne Demons | U21.5 | 16.4 | 22.6 | UNDER -5.1 |
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | U29.5 | 24.6 | 30.8 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne Demons | U23.5 | 19.3 | 19.2 | UNDER -4.2 |
| Jordan Ridley | Essendon Bombers | U19.5 | 16.1 | 17.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Sam Durham | Essendon Bombers | U23.5 | 20.2 | 21.8 | UNDER -3.3 |
Over Signal: Xavier Duursma (Essendon Bombers) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Trent Rivers (Melbourne Demons) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 163.5 | 163.5 | $1.90 | 38.8% edge | Strong | Model total 198.4 vs market 163.5. Gap: 34.9 points. |
| Spread | Melbourne Demons -30.5 | -30.5 | $1.90 | 9.8% edge | Strong | Model has Melbourne Demons winning by 39.2. Market line: 30.5. Edge: 9.8%. |
| Prop | Clayton Oliver Under 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 6.0% edge | None | Model has Clayton Oliver at 24.5 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Melbourne vs Essendon
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Other Round 14 Tips
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