Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans
Adelaide Oval
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Port Adelaide vs Sydney, Round 14 2026
Port Adelaide Power 3-1 in last 4. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Sydney winning. Model total 181.0 vs market 165.5. Over 165.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 165.5. Our model puts it at 181.0, a 15.5-point gap. That is a 20.4% edge on the Over 165.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
Port Adelaide Power
Team news not yet available.
Sydney Swans
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Port Adelaide
Sydney hold a Disposals advantage: 397 vs 344.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Port Adelaide
Sydney
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R15 | Port Adelaide Power | 52 - 71 | Sydney Swans | Sydney | L | U |
| 2025 | R6 | Sydney Swans | 77 - 85 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
| 2024 | R21 | Port Adelaide Power | 148 - 36 | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide | W | O |
| 2023 | R4 | Sydney Swans | 64 - 66 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
Port Adelaide Power 3-1 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Sydney win 52 - 71 at Port Adelaide in R15 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L L. Port Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 71.0 scored and 82.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 344.6. Their home record 2-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W W. Sydney are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 108.0 scored and 87.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 60.8. Their away record 3-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brodie Grundy | Sydney Swans | O18.5 | 23.8 | 21.0 | OVER +5.3 |
| Jase Burgoyne | Port Adelaide Power | U21.5 | 16.3 | 21.8 | UNDER -5.2 |
| Zak Butters | Port Adelaide Power | U29.5 | 25.9 | 30.0 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Kane Farrell | Port Adelaide Power | O18.5 | 21.5 | 19.0 | OVER +3.0 |
| Nick Blakey | Sydney Swans | U25.5 | 22.5 | 28.2 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | Sydney Swans | U26.5 | 23.8 | 28.2 | UNDER -2.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 165.5 | 165.5 | $1.88 | 20.4% edge | Strong | Model total 181.0 vs market 165.5. Gap: 15.5 points. |
| Spread | Sydney Swans -17.5 | -17.5 | $1.90 | 15.0% edge | Strong | Model has Sydney Swans winning by 31.0. Market line: 17.5. Edge: 15.0%. |
| Prop | Brodie Grundy Over 18.5 | 18.5 | N/A | 5.3% edge | None | Model has Brodie Grundy at 23.8 vs line 18.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Port Adelaide vs Sydney
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Other Round 14 Tips
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