Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions
Ninja Stadium
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Richmond vs Brisbane, Round 14 2026
Richmond Tigers 0-3 in last 3. At Ninja Stadium, the model sees Brisbane winning. Model total 197.4 vs market 180.5. Over 180.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 180.5. Our model puts it at 197.4, a 16.9-point gap. That is a 22.4% edge on the Over 180.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
Richmond Tigers
Team news not yet available.
Brisbane Lions
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Richmond
Brisbane hold a Disposals advantage: 350 vs 341 per game.
Last 5 Results
Richmond
Brisbane
Recent Meetings
Last 3 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R4 | Richmond Tigers | 90 - 118 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | W | O |
| 2024 | R10 | Brisbane Lions | 163 - 44 | Richmond Tigers | Brisbane | W | O |
| 2023 | R16 | Brisbane Lions | 134 - 53 | Richmond Tigers | Brisbane | W | O |
Richmond Tigers 0-3 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Brisbane win 90 - 118 at Richmond in R4 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L W L L W. Richmond are in mixed recent form. Averaging 72.6 scored and 104.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 341. Their home record 1-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L W. Brisbane are in mixed recent form. Averaging 89.6 scored and 110.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 56.8. Their away record 4-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | Richmond Tigers | U23.5 | 18.2 | 24.2 | UNDER -5.3 |
| Darcy Wilmot | Brisbane Lions | U25.5 | 21.8 | 24.2 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Josh Dunkley | Brisbane Lions | O20.5 | 23.9 | 19.6 | OVER +3.4 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | Brisbane Lions | O18.5 | 20.7 | 16.2 | OVER +2.2 |
| Sam Banks | Richmond Tigers | O17.5 | 19.5 | 14.4 | OVER +2.0 |
| Dion Prestia | Richmond Tigers | U20.5 | 18.6 | 18.0 | UNDER -1.9 |
Over Signal: Jacob Hopper (Richmond Tigers) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 180.5 | 180.5 | $1.90 | 22.4% edge | Strong | Model total 197.4 vs market 180.5. Gap: 16.9 points. |
| Prop | Jacob Hopper Over 20.5 | 20.5 | N/A | 8.1% edge | Strong | Model has Jacob Hopper at 28.6 vs line 20.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Richmond vs Brisbane
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Other Round 14 Tips
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