St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants
Marvel Stadium
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St Kilda vs GWS, Round 14 2026
St Kilda Saints 2-3 in last 5. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees St Kilda winning. Model total 195.7 vs market 183.5. Over 183.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 183.5. Our model puts it at 195.7, a 12.2-point gap. That is a 16.3% edge on the Over 183.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
St Kilda Saints
Team news not yet available.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
St Kilda
St Kilda hold a Disposals advantage: 379.8 vs 386.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
St Kilda
GWS
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 74 - 78 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
| 2025 | R24 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 104 - 93 | St Kilda Saints | GWS | L | O |
| 2025 | R5 | St Kilda Saints | 82 - 110 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | GWS | L | O |
| 2024 | R5 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 80 - 79 | St Kilda Saints | GWS | L | U |
| 2023 | R10 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 80 - 92 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | O |
St Kilda Saints 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw St Kilda win 74 - 78 at GWS in R2 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W L. St Kilda are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 82.4 scored and 97.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 379.8. Their home record 2-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W L. GWS are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 104.4 scored and 83.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.2. Their away record 1-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachlan Ash | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U30.5 | 24.9 | 29.6 | UNDER -5.6 |
| Connor Idun | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U20.5 | 15.6 | 22.4 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Hugo Garcia | St Kilda Saints | U19.5 | 15.6 | 22.0 | UNDER -3.9 |
| Marcus Windhager | St Kilda Saints | O19.5 | 23.2 | 20.0 | OVER +3.7 |
| Lachie Whitfield | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U29.5 | 27.0 | 28.8 | UNDER -2.5 |
| Bradley Hill | St Kilda Saints | U20.5 | 18.5 | 22.2 | UNDER -2.0 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 183.5 | 183.5 | $1.89 | 16.3% edge | Strong | Model total 195.7 vs market 183.5. Gap: 12.2 points. |
| Prop | Lachlan Ash Under 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 5.6% edge | None | Model has Lachlan Ash at 24.9 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on St Kilda vs GWS
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Other Round 14 Tips
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