Sun 9 Aug · Manuka Oval · 1:10pm AEST
Round 21 was another 4-from-5 winner. Gold Coast/Melbourne cashed at 219 as the Suns dropped their 10th in a row. The Carlton/Brisbane Over blew up - the Blues put 154 on the reigning premier and equalled the AFL record with 16 individual goalkickers in the process. St Kilda/Sydney and Hawthorn/North both cashed. Only miss was Collingwood/Geelong Over 172.5 - stalled at 169 after Pies stopped scoring in Q3. Track record now 50 bets, 25-25, ROI back to -4.5%. Best fortnight of the tracked history.
Round 22, second last home-and-away round. Nine games, no byes. Brisbane vs Hawthorn at the Gabba Friday night is the standout - top-four blockbuster with Over 187.0 at 31.8% edge (model 216.4). GWS vs Gold Coast Over 169.5 second at 30.1% (Suns cooked, 10 losses in a row). Adelaide vs Richmond Over 159.5 third at 19.9% (Crows just belted Ess 145-73, tigers on a small revival after upsetting West Coast).
St Kilda -5.5 vs Carlton at Marvel Sunday night is the biggest spread edge at 17.8% - Blues coming off the blowout, model sees regression. Melbourne vs Fremantle Over 174.5 fourth at 16.2%. Fremantle 18-2 have locked top-two and double chance - Melbourne need every win to hold 4-6. Sydney 15-5 second, Hawthorn 14-5-1 third, then a three-way tie at 13-7 between Adelaide, Brisbane and Melbourne for 4-6. Only two rounds left.
Our highest-confidence plays for Round 20, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value. Nine games this round, no byes.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn
Gabba Friday 7:40pm - top-four blockbuster. Lions (13-7, 5th) off a shock 76-point loss to Carlton at Marvel where the Blues equalled the AFL record with 16 individual goalkickers. Hawks (14-5-1, 3rd) on a four-game winning streak. Both sides need this to lock double chance. Model has Hawks by 4.5, but the total is where the value sits: Over 187.0 at 31.8% edge (model 216.4).
Full Analysis →
Brisbane / Hawthorn Over 187.0
31.8% edge. Two top-four sides averaging over 100 a game. Hawks off 99-83 win over North at UTAS, Lions humbled by Carlton but scoring stayed at 78. Gabba is a fast deck. Model total 216.4 vs market 187.0 - a 29-point gap.
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 22. Nine matches, no byes, only two rounds left before finals. Every top-8 place still live. The model has crunched form, disposals, contested possessions, scoring efficiency, and 50+ other variables.
31.8% edge - biggest of the round. Model total 216.4 vs market 187.0 at the Gabba Friday night. Third-placed Hawks (14-5-1) travel to fifth-placed Lions (13-7) off a 76-point Carlton belting last weekend. Both sides averaging 100+.
30.1% edge. Model total 199.0 vs market 169.5 at Manuka Sunday. Giants riding a small revival, Suns cooked - 10 losses in a row under Dimma. This one goes long in a hurry.
Dockers locked in top-two + double chance after beating Bulldogs 78-41 at Optus (their ninth Fri/Thu-night win). Sydney 15-5 second. Hawthorn 14-5-1 third. Then a three-way tie for 4-6: Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne all 13-7 on 52 points.
Marvel Stadium Sunday 7:20pm. Saints -5.5 at 17.8% edge - the biggest spread of R22. Carlton coming off the 154-78 blowout but the model sees regression. Blues away form is 4-5, Saints 5-4 at Marvel.
After Round 21 - Updated 4 August 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle
|
20 | 18 | 2 | 72 | 147.3% | WWWWW |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
20 | 15 | 5 | 60 | 129.5% | LWWWW |
| 3 |
Hawthorn
|
20 | 14 | 5-1 | 58 | 123.7% | WWWWW |
| 4 |
Adelaide
|
20 | 13 | 7 | 52 | 117.6% | WWLLW |
| 5 |
Brisbane
|
20 | 13 | 7 | 52 | 112.0% | WWWWL |
| 6 |
Melbourne
|
20 | 13 | 7 | 52 | 107.8% | WWWLW |
| 7 |
Geelong
|
20 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 117.2% | LLWWW |
| 8 |
W. Bulldogs
|
20 | 12 | 8 | 48 | 94.8% | WWWWL |
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6-9 August 2026
Top contenders - updated 4 August 2026 (post-R21).
Another 4 from 5 week for the model. Gold Coast/Melbourne Over 180.5 cashed at 219 as the Dees held off Dimma's Suns (10 in a row now). Carlton/Brisbane Over 181.5 blew up as the Blues equalled the AFL record with 16 individual goalkickers on the way to 154-78 - the reigning premier belted. St Kilda/Sydney Over 183.0 got there at 195, and Hawthorn/North Over 175.5 landed at 182. Only miss: Collingwood/Geelong Over 172.5 stalled at 169 - Pies choked in Q3 and never got the total moving. Track record now 50 bets, 25-25 (evens), ROI -6.5%. Two weeks left before finals.
