Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows
Marvel Stadium
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Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide, Round 14 2026
Western Bulldogs carry a 3-game winning streak into Marvel Stadium. Model: Western Bulldogs 90.3 - Adelaide 87.6. Marcus Bontempelli Over 25.5 is our selection.
The market has the total at 180.5. Our model puts it at 177.9, a 2.6-point gap. That is a 3.5% edge on the Under 180.5.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 14
Western Bulldogs
Team news not yet available.
Adelaide Crows
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide hold a Tackles advantage: 77 vs 57 per game.
Last 5 Results
Western Bulldogs
Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 88 - 94 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | L | U |
| 2025 | R18 | Western Bulldogs | 98 - 109 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | O |
| 2024 | R22 | Adelaide Crows | 111 - 72 | Western Bulldogs | Adelaide | W | O |
| 2023 | R10 | Western Bulldogs | 85 - 40 | Adelaide Crows | Western Bulldogs | W | U |
Western Bulldogs 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Western Bulldogs win 88 - 94 at Adelaide in R2 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Western Bulldogs are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 80.6 scored and 80.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 355.2. Their home record 4-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: W L W W W. Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 89.6 scored and 70.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.8. Their away record 2-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | O25.5 | 31.0 | 25.8 | OVER +5.5 |
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U24.5 | 20.8 | 26.2 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Joel Freijah | Western Bulldogs | U18.5 | 15.1 | 19.2 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Matthew Kennedy | Western Bulldogs | U23.5 | 20.1 | 22.0 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | U23.5 | 20.5 | 23.4 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Rory Laird | Adelaide Crows | U24.5 | 21.8 | 23.8 | UNDER -2.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop | Marcus Bontempelli Over 25.5 | 25.5 | N/A | 5.5% edge | None | Model has Marcus Bontempelli at 31.0 vs line 25.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide
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Other Round 14 Tips
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