St Kilda Saints vs Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium
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St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs, Round 15 2026
St Kilda Saints 1-3 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees St Kilda winning. Model total 191.5 vs market 184.5. Over 184.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 184.5. Our model puts it at 191.5, a 7.0-point gap. That is a 9.5% edge on the Over 184.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
St Kilda Saints
Jack Higgins, Paddy Dow, Mattaes Phillipou expected to play. Concerns: Higgins knee test, Howard calf, King conditioning. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Western Bulldogs
Liberatore and Vandermeer nearing returns. Tom Liberatore, Laitham Vandermeer in. Lachie McNeil out.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
St Kilda
St Kilda hold a Disposals advantage: 380.2 vs 348.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R14 | St Kilda Saints | 60 - 132 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | L | O |
| 2025 | R6 | Western Bulldogs | 127 - 56 | St Kilda Saints | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R6 | St Kilda Saints | 64 - 124 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | L | O |
| 2023 | R2 | Western Bulldogs | 41 - 92 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
St Kilda Saints 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Western Bulldogs win 60 - 132 at St Kilda in R14 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L W. St Kilda are in mixed recent form. Averaging 89.6 scored and 97.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 380.2. Their home record 3-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Western Bulldogs are in mixed recent form. Averaging 78.6 scored and 89.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 51.2. Their away record 4-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda Saints | O30.5 | 35.5 | 31.4 | OVER +5.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | O25.5 | 30.1 | 25.6 | OVER +4.6 |
| Bradley Hill | St Kilda Saints | U22.5 | 18.5 | 20.4 | UNDER -4.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | Western Bulldogs | U23.5 | 19.5 | 22.8 | UNDER -4.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | St Kilda Saints | O20.5 | 23.2 | 20.0 | OVER +2.7 |
| Ed Richards | Western Bulldogs | U25.5 | 23.7 | 25.8 | UNDER -1.8 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 184.5 | 184.5 | $1.88 | 9.5% edge | Strong | Model total 191.5 vs market 184.5. Gap: 7.0 points. |
| Spread | St Kilda Saints -1.5 | -1.5 | $1.90 | 9.3% edge | Strong | Model has St Kilda Saints winning by 9.7. Market line: 1.5. Edge: 9.3%. |
| Prop | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Over 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 5.0% edge | None | Model has Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 35.5 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
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Other Round 15 Tips
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