AFL Ladder Predictor 2026
Where the AFL ladder is projected to finish based on remaining fixtures, current form and our predictive model. Updated after every round.
Fremantle (11-1) are clear at the top with 11 games left. Sydney sit 2nd at 10-2 with the league-best percentage. The race for the Top 4 is wide open between Hawthorn, Geelong, Gold Coast and Melbourne - all within four percentage points.
Projected Final Ladder (24 Rounds)
Model projection of where each team finishes assuming current form holds and remaining fixtures are settled at the model's expected margin. Updates after each round.
| Proj | Team | Now | Proj W-L | Top 4 prob | Finals prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle | 11-1 (135%) | 19-3 | 98% | 99% |
| 2 | Sydney | 10-2 (152%) | 18-4 | 94% | 99% |
| 3 | Hawthorn | 8-3-1 (115%) | 16-5-1 | 76% | 95% |
| 4 | Geelong | 8-4 (122%) | 15-7 | 62% | 90% |
| 5 | Gold Coast | 7-4 (117%) | 14-8 | 48% | 87% |
| 6 | Melbourne | 7-5 (102%) | 13-9 | 28% | 75% |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs | 7-5 (94%) | 13-9 | 18% | 68% |
| 8 | Adelaide | 6-5 (108%) | 12-10 | 15% | 58% |
| 9 | Brisbane | 6-6 (104%) | 11-11 | 8% | 42% |
| 10 | GWS | 6-6 (103%) | 11-11 | 5% | 38% |
| 11 | Collingwood | 5-6-1 (100%) | 10-11-1 | 2% | 22% |
| 12 | St Kilda | 5-7 (102%) | 9-13 | <1% | 12% |
| 13 | North Melbourne | 5-6 (98%) | 9-13 | <1% | 9% |
| 14 | Carlton | 4-8 (88%) | 7-15 | <1% | 3% |
| 15 | West Coast | 4-8 (70%) | 7-15 | <1% | 2% |
| 16 | Port Adelaide | 3-8 (101%) | 6-16 | <1% | 2% |
| 17 | Richmond | 2-10 (60%) | 3-19 | <1% | <1% |
| 18 | Essendon | 1-11 (71%) | 3-19 | <1% | <1% |
How We Make the Projection
Each remaining game is simulated using our match-prediction model that powers the weekly tip pages. For each fixture we compute an expected margin, then convert that into a win probability with a logistic curve calibrated against historical AFL margins. The expected wins per team are then totalled to produce projected final standings, and Top 4 / Finals probabilities are computed from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the run home.
Top Movers Since Round 11
- Fremantle - Back to top after road wins at Brisbane and the Gabba. Top 4 probability up from 92% to 98%.
- Sydney - Slipped to 2nd after a 27-point loss to Geelong in Round 11, then put 170 on Richmond in Round 12. Still 94% Top 4.
- Carlton - Two straight wins (Port by 34, Geelong by 4) lift Top 4 chances from sub-1% to barely 1%, but finals odds doubled from 1% to 3%.
- Essendon - 1-11. Finals mathematically eliminated in all but ~0.1% of simulations.
What Could Change the Picture
Three games to watch over the next month for ladder volatility:
- Adelaide v Geelong R13 - Cats need a road win to keep pressure on the Top 4.
- QClash R13 - Both clubs in the 5-9 cluster fighting for Top 8 leverage.
- Collingwood v Melbourne (King's Birthday) - Dees finals hopes hinge on bouncing back from the GWS belting.
For the current real-time standings, see the live ladder. For week-by-week analysis, the tips hub covers every match.