Season 2026 is our first live-tracked season. Results will be published here after each round. We believe transparency is the minimum standard for any site that offers betting analysis - if we cannot show our results, we have no right to offer advice.
Round-by-Round Results
We began live-tracking the top model picks at the start of Round 10 (10 May 2026). Earlier rounds were model development and back-testing only - we will not publish back-tested results because they are not real bets. Every pick listed below is a flag the model raised before game start. All settlement happens at the next-day price snapshot, with results posted within 24 hours of full time.
Season Totals (Round 10 onwards)
Live tracking began Round 10 (10 May 2026). All picks at flat 1 unit, settled at -110 ($1.91) market odds.
Pre-Live (Rounds 1-9)
Model development and back-testing. Not published as track record. Results were used to calibrate the spread/totals model weights only.
Round 10 (10-12 May 2026)
Winners tipped: 7/9. Three high-edge plays, 2/3 cashed. Adelaide's 68-point belting of North was the biggest model win of the round.
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Melbourne vs Adelaide | Adelaide -18.5 | 21.2% | $1.91 | WIN | Adelaide won by 68 at Adelaide Oval - covered comfortably |
| St Kilda vs Richmond | Under 184.5 | 26.1% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 182 - covered by 2.5 points |
| Sydney vs Collingwood | Under 180.5 | 11.8% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 204 - missed by 23.5 points |
Round 11 (21-24 May 2026)
Winners tipped: 5/9. Overs got smoked. Two Overs at 24%+ edge both went well Under. Saved by the North-Gold Coast shootout.
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hawthorn vs Adelaide | Over 158.5 | 37.9% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 141 - line shortened to 158.5 after teamlists, still missed Under |
| Richmond vs Essendon | Over 173.5 | 24.9% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 130 - Dreamtime at the G played low and slow |
| North Melbourne vs Gold Coast | Over 182.5 | 24.8% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 216 - cashed comfortably with North 111-105 |
Round 12 (28-31 May 2026)
Winners tipped: 5/7. Sydney -60.5 cashed in style. Top totals played mixed - West Coast/Essendon and Carlton/Geelong both went Under despite huge edges.
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast vs Essendon | Over 152.5 | 43.2% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 140 - wet conditions at Optus killed scoring |
| Melbourne vs GWS | Over 178.5 | 36.7% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 189 - cashed (GWS by 49 in Alice Springs) |
| Carlton vs Geelong | Over 178.5 | 24.5% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 172 - missed by 6.5 in Carlton upset |
| Sydney vs Richmond | Sydney -60.5 | 19.6% | $1.91 | WIN | Sydney won by 114 - covered by 53.5 in 170-56 demolition |
| St Kilda vs Hawthorn | Over 180.5 | 13.6% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 186 - just covered as Hawks belted Saints by 52 |
| Brisbane vs Fremantle | Over 182.5 | 14.3% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 181 - missed by 1.5 |
| St Kilda vs Hawthorn | Saints +16.5 | 13.2% | $1.91 | LOSS | Hawthorn won by 52 - blew past the line |
| Sydney vs St Kilda | Over 186.5 | 14.6% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 206 - cashed in 2-point thriller |
Round 13 (4-8 June 2026)
Winners tipped: 3/8. Worst week of the year. The Overs got smoked - four edges above 23% all went well Under. Saved by Port +7.5 cashing and the Sydney/Saints thriller hitting Over 185.5.
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide vs Geelong | Over 166.5 | 28.4% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 149 - low-scoring grind, Adelaide pinched it by 1 |
| Gold Coast vs Brisbane | Over 188.5 | 26.8% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 181 - Lions won by 31 but pace was slower than projected |
| Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs | Over 175.5 | 23.5% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 148 - missed by 27.5 |
| Essendon vs Carlton | Over 172.5 | 19.9% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 139 - Bombers' lowest of the year |
| Sydney vs St Kilda | Over 185.5 | 15.8% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 206 - 2-point thriller delivered points |
| Collingwood vs Melbourne | Collingwood -0.5 | 15.4% | $1.91 | LOSS | Dees won King's Birthday by 8 in front of 88,019 |
| Collingwood vs Melbourne | Over 180.5 | 15.4% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 158 - defensive Big Freeze 12 |
| North Melbourne vs Fremantle | Over 178.5 | 15.0% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 186 - Dockers 155-31 demolition |
| Sydney vs Richmond | Sydney -30.0 | 14.4% | $1.91 | LOSS | Sydney won by only 2 against St Kilda - covered nothing |
| West Coast vs Port Adelaide | Port +7.5 | 10.5% | $1.91 | WIN | Port won outright by 6 - upset cashed easily |
Round 14 (11-14 June 2026)
Winners tipped: 5/7. Bounced back from R13's disaster. The two giant 38%+ Over edges both went well Under (Melb/Ess 145, North/WCE 147). Saved by Sydney +16.5, Melbourne -29.5, three Overs (Richmond/Brisbane, Port/Sydney, Saints/GWS).
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne vs Essendon | Over 162.5 | 39.9% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 145 - well under, Bombers couldn't move the ball |
| North Melbourne vs West Coast | Over 175.5 | 29.6% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 147 - North snuck home by 1 |
| Geelong vs Gold Coast | Over 178.5 | 22.9% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 165 - Cats by 45 but Suns barely scored |
| Richmond vs Brisbane | Over 180.5 | 22.0% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 195 - Lions cruised by 35 in Hobart |
| Port Adelaide vs Sydney | Over 165.5 | 20.4% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 183 - Swans nicked it by 3 |
| Essendon vs Carlton | Over 174.5 | 18.2% | $1.91 | PENDING | Was the R13 pick; carried over |
| St Kilda vs GWS | Over 183.5 | 16.3% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 184 - cashed by half a point |
| Port Adelaide vs Sydney | Sydney +16.5 | 16.1% | $1.91 | WIN | Swans won outright by 3 |
| North Melbourne vs West Coast | North -6.5 | 11.7% | $1.91 | LOSS | Roos won by only 1, didn't cover |
| Melbourne vs Essendon | Melbourne -29.5 | 10.9% | $1.91 | WIN | Dees won by 45 - covered comfortably |
Round 15 (18-21 June 2026)
Winners tipped: 5/7. An Unders week the model called as Overs. Five of seven flagged totals went well Under. Saved only by Gold Coast/Hawthorn cashing and Geelong covering +22. The model's confidence on Overs is leaking - five straight rounds of double-digit Over edges going well Under.
| Match | Pick | Edge | Odds | Result | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond vs North Melbourne | Over 175.5 | 23.5% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 121 (Richmond 48, North 73) - missed by 54.5, well Under |
| Adelaide vs Melbourne | Over 178.5 | 14.6% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 141 (Adelaide 79, Melbourne 62) - missed by 37.5 |
| Gold Coast vs Hawthorn | Over 178.5 | 13.5% | $1.91 | WIN | Actual total 210 (Gold Coast 97, Hawthorn 113) - cashed by 31.5 |
| Fremantle vs Geelong | Geelong +22.0 | 12.6% | $1.91 | WIN | Cats lost by 9 - covered the 22-point line comfortably |
| St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs | Over 184.5 | 9.5% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 144 (Saints 61, Dogs 83) - missed by 40.5 |
| St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs | St Kilda -1.5 | 9.3% | $1.91 | LOSS | Saints lost by 22 - never close |
| GWS vs Carlton | Over 182.5 | 7.6% | $1.91 | LOSS | Actual total 153 (GWS 65, Carlton 88) - missed by 29.5 |
Updated after every round. Round 13 picks settle from 5 June. Sample size is small - over 200+ bets is when statistical significance kicks in. Bet responsibly.
What These Metrics Mean
Closing Line Value (CLV)
CLV measures the difference between the price at which a bet was placed and the closing price just before game start. If you back a team at $2.20 and the price closes at $2.00, you achieved positive CLV of approximately 10%. Positive CLV is the strongest indicator of long-term profitability because the closing line is the most efficient price the market produces - it incorporates all available information including late team changes, weather, and sharp money.
Yield
Yield is the profit or loss expressed as a percentage of total amount wagered. A yield of +5% means that for every $100 wagered, the bettor profited $5 on average. Over a full AFL season with consistent unit sizing, a yield above 3–5% is considered strong. Yield is a better measure of edge than win rate because it accounts for the odds at which bets are placed.
ROI (Return on Investment)
ROI is total profit divided by total capital deployed. For flat-stake betting it is identical to yield. For variable-stake betting (where some bets are larger than others), ROI reflects the actual return on the money put at risk. A positive ROI over a statistically significant sample (200+ bets) is strong evidence of a genuine edge.
Win Rate
Win rate is the simplest metric - bets won divided by total bets. However, it is the least useful metric in isolation. A bettor who only backs $1.10 favourites will have a high win rate but may still lose money. A bettor who backs value underdogs at $3.00+ will have a lower win rate but can be highly profitable. Win rate only means something when combined with the average odds at which bets are placed.