What we saw in R21

Fremantle sealed top-two + finals double chance with a 78-41 grinder over the Bulldogs at Optus - their ninth Friday/Thursday-night win of the season. The Dockers are 18-2 with 147.3%. Sydney rolled St Kilda 107-88 at Marvel to stay second at 15-5. Hawthorn beat North 99-83 at UTAS Stadium to lock top four (14-5-1, 58 points). Carlton dropped the mic - 154-78 against the reigning premier Brisbane at Marvel, equalling the AFL record with 16 individual goalkickers. Blues to 10-10. Geelong beat Collingwood 97-72 at the MCG to grab seventh. Adelaide belted Essendon 145-73 - Crows into fourth on percentage. Richmond upset West Coast 84-73 for their third win of the year. Melbourne outlasted the Suns 114-105 in a Gold Coast thriller - Suns 10 in a row now.

Top-four locked: Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn. Fourth spot up for grabs among Adelaide/Brisbane/Melbourne all 13-7. Bulldogs slipped to eighth on percentage. Two rounds left.

Round 22 Betting Trends

Nine games this round, no byes. Model is Overs-heavy AGAIN - seven of nine totals flagged. Brisbane vs Hawthorn Over 187.0 at the Gabba Friday night is the standout at 31.8% edge (model 216.4). GWS vs Gold Coast Over 169.5 at Manuka second at 30.1% (Suns leaking - 10 losses in a row). Adelaide vs Richmond Over 159.5 third at 19.9%. St Kilda -5.5 vs Carlton at Marvel Sunday night is the biggest spread edge at 17.8% - model sees Blues regressing hard after their record blowout. Collingwood +17.5 at Optus is a 9.4% spread edge worth chasing.