Adelaide Crows vs Geelong Cats
Adelaide Oval
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Adelaide vs Geelong, Round 13 2026
Adelaide Crows 0-5 in last 5. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Geelong winning. Model total 189.4 vs market 166.5. Over 166.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 166.5. Our model puts it at 189.4, a 22.8-point gap. That is a 28.4% edge on the Over 166.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Adelaide Crows
Riley Thilthorpe, Izak Rankine out. Injury concerns: Rankine calf, Thilthorpe suspension, Hinge ankle test, Cumming hamstring. Taylor Walker, Hugo Hall-Kahan, Callum Ah Chee, Mark Keane expected to play. Check AFL.com.au.
Geelong Cats
Minimal injury concerns ahead of bye period. Jack Martin, Lawson Humphries, Jay Polkinghorne confirmed in. Concerns: Humphries ankle test, Conway foot/knee, Stengle conditioning.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Adelaide
Geelong hold a Disposals advantage: 394.2 vs 370.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Adelaide
Geelong
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Geelong Cats | 68 - 60 | Adelaide Crows | Geelong | L | U |
| 2025 | R5 | Adelaide Crows | 100 - 119 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | O |
| 2024 | R21 | Geelong Cats | 90 - 85 | Adelaide Crows | Geelong | L | O |
| 2024 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 77 - 96 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | U |
| 2023 | R8 | Geelong Cats | 98 - 72 | Adelaide Crows | Geelong | L | O |
Adelaide Crows 0-5 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 68 - 60 at Geelong in R3 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 89.6 scored and 80.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 370.4. Their home record 4-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W W. Geelong are in mixed recent form. Averaging 113.0 scored and 79.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 60.2. Their away record 1-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bruhn | Geelong Cats | U22.5 | 16.5 | 20.6 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | U24.5 | 21.2 | 22.4 | UNDER -3.3 |
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U24.5 | 21.5 | 27.0 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Rory Laird | Adelaide Crows | U24.5 | 22.5 | 25.0 | UNDER -2.0 |
| Tom Atkins | Geelong Cats | O18.5 | 19.7 | 17.2 | OVER +1.2 |
| Bailey Smith | Geelong Cats | U32.5 | 31.3 | 33.4 | UNDER -1.2 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 166.5 | 166.5 | $1.88 | 28.4% edge | Strong | Model total 189.3 vs market 166.5. Gap: 22.8 points. |
| Prop | Tanner Bruhn Under 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 6.0% edge | None | Model has Tanner Bruhn at 16.5 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Adelaide vs Geelong
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Other Round 13 Tips
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