Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons
Adelaide Oval
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Adelaide vs Melbourne, Round 15 2026
Adelaide Crows 1-2 in last 3. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Adelaide winning. Model total 189.3 vs market 178.5. Over 178.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 178.5. Our model puts it at 189.3, a 10.8-point gap. That is a 14.6% edge on the Over 178.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Adelaide Crows
Izak Rankine, Taylor Walker, Mark Keane expected to play. Concerns: Pedlar hamstring, Butts calf, Cumming hamstring, Hinge ankle. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Melbourne Demons
Harrison Petty, Lukas Cooke out. Injury concerns: Petty hamstring, Mihocek season, Salem foot. Matt Jefferson, Caleb Windsor, Changkuoth Jiath expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Adelaide
Adelaide hold a Tackles advantage: 75.8 vs 57.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Adelaide
Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 3 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R17 | Adelaide Crows | 90 - 77 | Melbourne Demons | Adelaide | L | U |
| 2024 | R4 | Adelaide Crows | 63 - 78 | Melbourne Demons | Melbourne | L | U |
| 2023 | R19 | Melbourne Demons | 97 - 93 | Adelaide Crows | Melbourne | L | O |
Adelaide Crows 1-2 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 90 - 77 at Adelaide in R17 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W W. Adelaide are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 98.6 scored and 67.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 391.2. Their home record 5-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: W W L L W. Melbourne are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 91.6 scored and 83.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 57.6. Their away record 3-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne Demons | U24.5 | 18.8 | 22.8 | UNDER -5.7 |
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U26.5 | 21.5 | 27.0 | UNDER -5.0 |
| Izak Rankine | Adelaide Crows | U21.5 | 16.6 | 24.0 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Ed Langdon | Melbourne Demons | U20.5 | 15.9 | 22.0 | UNDER -4.6 |
| Rory Laird | Adelaide Crows | U25.5 | 22.5 | 27.6 | UNDER -3.0 |
| Jake Bowey | Melbourne Demons | U23.5 | 21.1 | 24.2 | UNDER -2.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 178.5 | 178.5 | $1.88 | 14.6% edge | Strong | Model total 189.3 vs market 178.5. Gap: 10.8 points. |
| Prop | Kysaiah Pickett Under 24.5 | 24.5 | N/A | 5.7% edge | None | Model has Kysaiah Pickett at 18.8 vs line 24.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Adelaide vs Melbourne
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Other Round 15 Tips
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