Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons
MCG
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Collingwood vs Melbourne, Round 13 2026
Collingwood Magpies 4-1 in last 5. At the MCG, the model sees Collingwood winning. Model total 192.0 vs market 180.5. Collingwood Magpies +0.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 180.5. Our model puts it at 192.0, a 11.5-point gap. That is a 15.4% edge on the Over 180.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Collingwood Magpies
Jamie Elliott out. Injury concerns: Elliott ACL season, Moore hamstring, Perryman hamstring test. Harry Perryman, Tim Membrey, Jack Buller expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Melbourne Demons
Andy Moniz-Wakefield out. Injury concerns: Lever concussion test, Jiath knee test, Pickett quad test. Jake Lever, Brody Mihocek, Jake Melksham expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Collingwood
Collingwood hold a Disposals advantage: 381.2 vs 349.2 per game.
Last 5 Results
Collingwood
Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Collingwood Magpies | 82 - 76 | Melbourne Demons | Collingwood | L | U |
| 2025 | R13 | Melbourne Demons | 71 - 72 | Collingwood Magpies | Collingwood | W | U |
| 2024 | R24 | Melbourne Demons | 57 - 103 | Collingwood Magpies | Collingwood | L | U |
| 2024 | R13 | Collingwood Magpies | 89 - 51 | Melbourne Demons | Collingwood | W | U |
| 2023 | R13 | Melbourne Demons | 66 - 62 | Collingwood Magpies | Melbourne | W | U |
Collingwood Magpies 4-1 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Collingwood win 82 - 76 at Collingwood in R24 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Last five: L W L L D. Collingwood are in mixed recent form. Averaging 84.2 scored and 95.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 381.2. Their home record 2-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W L. Melbourne are on two straight losses. Averaging 98.6 scored and 98.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 56.4. Their away record 2-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Crisp | Collingwood Magpies | U23.5 | 18.6 | 23.4 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Ed Langdon | Melbourne Demons | U20.5 | 15.9 | 22.4 | UNDER -4.6 |
| Josh Daicos | Collingwood Magpies | U25.5 | 21.1 | 21.8 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Jake Bowey | Melbourne Demons | U25.5 | 21.1 | 24.8 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Christian Petracca | Melbourne Demons | U25.5 | 21.4 | 27.0 | UNDER -4.1 |
| Darcy Cameron | Collingwood Magpies | U18.5 | 15.6 | 18.8 | UNDER -2.9 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Collingwood Magpies +0.5 | 0.5 | $1.90 | 15.4% edge | Strong | Model has Collingwood Magpies winning by 13.4. Market line: 0.5. Edge: 15.4%. |
| Total | Over 180.5 | 180.5 | $1.88 | 15.4% edge | Strong | Model total 192.0 vs market 180.5. Gap: 11.5 points. |
| Prop | Jack Crisp Under 23.5 | 23.5 | N/A | 4.9% edge | None | Model has Jack Crisp at 18.6 vs line 23.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Collingwood vs Melbourne
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Other Round 13 Tips
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