Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues
MCG
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Essendon vs Carlton, Round 13 2026
Carlton arrive on a 3-game winning run. Model total 187.6 vs market 172.5. Over 172.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 172.5. Our model puts it at 187.6, a 15.1-point gap. That is a 19.9% edge on the Over 172.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Essendon Bombers
Lewis Hayes out. Injury concerns: Hayes ACL season, Caldwell ankle, McGrath jaw, Wright knee. Sam Durham, Mason Redman, Jordan Ridley expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Carlton Blues
Three straight wins leave selection pressure high. Concerns: Reidy ankle, Hollands ankle, Camporeale kidney.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Essendon
Essendon hold a Disposals advantage: 368.8 vs 390.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Essendon
Carlton
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Essendon Bombers | 56 - 90 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | U |
| 2025 | R13 | Carlton Blues | 78 - 70 | Essendon Bombers | Carlton | L | U |
| 2024 | R13 | Essendon Bombers | 70 - 96 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | O |
| 2023 | R13 | Carlton Blues | 52 - 86 | Essendon Bombers | Essendon | L | U |
Essendon Bombers 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Carlton win 56 - 90 at Essendon in R24 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Essendon are in the middle of a 7-game losing run. Averaging 68.0 scored and 101.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 368.8. Their home record 1-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L L. Carlton are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 82.4 scored and 82.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.4. Their away record 1-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | Carlton Blues | O23.5 | 28.4 | 23.4 | OVER +4.9 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U29.5 | 25.1 | 27.2 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Archie Roberts | Essendon Bombers | U30.5 | 27.0 | 32.6 | UNDER -3.5 |
| Patrick Cripps | Carlton Blues | U28.5 | 27.3 | 27.4 | UNDER -1.2 |
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | U26.5 | 25.4 | 29.8 | UNDER -1.1 |
| Darcy Parish | Essendon Bombers | U25.5 | 25.2 | 27.8 | UNDER -0.3 |
Over Signal: George Hewett (Carlton Blues) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Adam Cerra (Carlton Blues) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 172.5 | 172.5 | $1.88 | 19.9% edge | Strong | Model total 187.6 vs market 172.5. Gap: 15.1 points. |
| Spread | Essendon Bombers +30.5 | 30.5 | $1.90 | 9.2% edge | Strong | Model has Carlton Blues winning by 22.4. Market line: 30.5. Edge: 9.2%. |
| Prop | George Hewett Over 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 6.9% edge | Strong | Model has George Hewett at 29.4 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Essendon vs Carlton
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Other Round 13 Tips
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