Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats
Optus Stadium
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Fremantle vs Geelong, Round 15 2026
Fremantle carry a 12-game winning streak into Optus Stadium. Model has Fremantle by 10.7. Geelong Cats +22.0 is our top play.
Market has Fremantle by 22.0. Model has Fremantle by 10.7. That 11.3-point gap gives Geelong a 12.6% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Fremantle Dockers
Near full health with multiple first-choice players returning. Caleb Serong, Brennan Cox, Matthew Johnson, Sean Darcy in.
Geelong Cats
Gryan Miers, Jack Bowes, Brad Close expected to play. Concerns: Stewart concussion, Bowes hamstring test, Close ankle test. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Fremantle
Geelong hold a Disposals advantage: 379.8 vs 370.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Fremantle
Geelong
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 110 - 100 | Fremantle Dockers | Geelong | L | O |
| 2025 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 147 - 69 | Fremantle Dockers | Geelong | W | O |
| 2024 | R22 | Fremantle Dockers | 62 - 73 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | U |
| 2023 | R20 | Geelong Cats | 64 - 71 | Fremantle Dockers | Fremantle | L | U |
| 2023 | R10 | Fremantle Dockers | 106 - 77 | Geelong Cats | Fremantle | W | O |
Fremantle Dockers 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 110 - 100 at Geelong in R1 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Fremantle are riding a 12-game winning streak. Averaging 110.8 scored and 63.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 370.8. Their home record 5-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: W L L W W. Geelong are in mixed recent form. Averaging 97.4 scored and 75.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 60.6. Their away record 1-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Ryan | Fremantle Dockers | U21.5 | 16.0 | 21.0 | UNDER -5.5 |
| Max Holmes | Geelong Cats | U27.5 | 22.4 | 29.4 | UNDER -5.1 |
| Tanner Bruhn | Geelong Cats | U21.5 | 16.5 | 18.2 | UNDER -5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | Fremantle Dockers | U21.5 | 17.2 | 23.8 | UNDER -4.3 |
| Tom Atkins | Geelong Cats | O17.5 | 19.7 | 17.6 | OVER +2.2 |
| Jordan Clark | Fremantle Dockers | O21.5 | 22.8 | 20.4 | OVER +1.3 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Geelong Cats +22.0 | 22.0 | $1.90 | 12.6% edge | Strong | Model has Fremantle Dockers winning by 10.7. Market line: 22.0. Edge: 12.6%. |
| Prop | Luke Ryan Under 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 5.5% edge | None | Model has Luke Ryan at 16.0 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Fremantle vs Geelong
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Other Round 15 Tips
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