Gold Coast Suns vs Brisbane Lions
People First Stadium
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Gold Coast vs Brisbane, Round 13 2026
Gold Coast Suns 2-3 in last 5. At People First Stadium, the model sees Gold Coast winning. Model total 209.8 vs market 188.5. Over 188.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 188.5. Our model puts it at 209.8, a 21.2-point gap. That is a 26.8% edge on the Over 188.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Gold Coast Suns
Will Graham, Jake Rogers, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan expected to play. Concerns: Rogers hamstring test, Ugle-Hagan ankle test, Weller hamstring. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Brisbane Lions
Keidean Coleman out. Injury concerns: Coleman hamstring, Zorko quad, Hipwood knee, McCarthy hamstring. Darragh Joyce, Shadeau Brain, Jimmy Tunstill expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Gold Coast
Brisbane hold a Disposals advantage: 364.2 vs 366 per game.
Last 5 Results
Gold Coast
Brisbane
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Gold Coast Suns | 130 - 64 | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast | W | O |
| 2025 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 66 - 49 | Gold Coast Suns | Brisbane | W | U |
| 2024 | R20 | Gold Coast Suns | 65 - 93 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | U |
| 2024 | R8 | Brisbane Lions | 79 - 45 | Gold Coast Suns | Brisbane | W | U |
| 2023 | R20 | Gold Coast Suns | 96 - 55 | Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast | W | U |
Gold Coast Suns 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Gold Coast win 130 - 64 at Gold Coast in R20 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Gold Coast are in mixed recent form. Averaging 87.6 scored and 83.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 366. Their home record 6-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W W. Brisbane are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 97.0 scored and 110.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 56.8. Their away record 3-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rioli | Gold Coast Suns | U21.5 | 15.5 | 22.4 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | Brisbane Lions | U25.5 | 21.8 | 25.6 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | O29.5 | 33.0 | 28.6 | OVER +3.5 |
| Josh Dunkley | Brisbane Lions | O20.5 | 23.9 | 19.2 | OVER +3.4 |
| Touk Miller | Gold Coast Suns | U23.5 | 20.9 | 23.6 | UNDER -2.6 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O26.5 | 28.7 | 27.8 | OVER +2.2 |
Over Signal: Hugh McCluggage (Brisbane Lions) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 188.5 | 188.5 | $1.88 | 26.8% edge | Strong | Model total 209.7 vs market 188.5. Gap: 21.2 points. |
| Prop | Hugh McCluggage Over 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 8.5% edge | Strong | Model has Hugh McCluggage at 30.0 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Gold Coast vs Brisbane
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Other Round 13 Tips
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