Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks
People First Stadium
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Gold Coast vs Hawthorn, Round 15 2026
Gold Coast Suns 3-1 in last 4. At People First Stadium, the model sees Hawthorn winning. Model total 188.6 vs market 178.5. Over 178.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 178.5. Our model puts it at 188.6, a 10.0-point gap. That is a 13.5% edge on the Over 178.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Gold Coast Suns
Ruck and forward decisions dominate selection discussion. Ethan Read, Jarrod Witts confirmed in. Jake Rogers out. Concerns: Read knee test, Powell shoulder, Graham hamstring.
Hawthorn Hawks
Barrass expected to return with few remaining injury concerns. Tom Barrass, Jack Gunston in. Max Beattie out.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Gold Coast
Hawthorn hold a Disposals advantage: 385.8 vs 364.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Gold Coast
Hawthorn
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Hawthorn Hawks | 112 - 63 | Gold Coast Suns | Hawthorn | W | U |
| 2025 | R10 | Gold Coast Suns | 104 - 96 | Hawthorn Hawks | Gold Coast | L | O |
| 2024 | R5 | Gold Coast Suns | 109 - 56 | Hawthorn Hawks | Gold Coast | W | O |
| 2023 | R15 | Gold Coast Suns | 101 - 34 | Hawthorn Hawks | Gold Coast | W | U |
Gold Coast Suns 3-1 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Hawthorn win 112 - 63 at Hawthorn in R7 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W W. Gold Coast are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 85.4 scored and 91.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 364.4. Their home record 6-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: L W W L L. Hawthorn are in mixed recent form. Averaging 83.8 scored and 83.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.6. Their away record 2-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rioli | Gold Coast Suns | U21.5 | 15.5 | 24.4 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | Hawthorn Hawks | U20.5 | 15.5 | 22.6 | UNDER -5.0 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O24.5 | 28.7 | 22.8 | OVER +4.2 |
| John Noble | Gold Coast Suns | U27.5 | 23.5 | 29.0 | UNDER -4.0 |
| Will Day | Hawthorn Hawks | U22.5 | 19.4 | 20.2 | UNDER -3.1 |
| James Sicily | Hawthorn Hawks | U21.5 | 18.5 | 22.2 | UNDER -3.0 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 178.5 | 178.5 | $1.88 | 13.5% edge | Strong | Model total 188.5 vs market 178.5. Gap: 10.0 points. |
| Prop | Daniel Rioli Under 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 6.0% edge | None | Model has Daniel Rioli at 15.5 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Gold Coast vs Hawthorn
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Other Round 15 Tips
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