Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Carlton Blues
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GWS vs Carlton, Round 15 2026
Carlton arrive on a 4-game winning run. Model total 188.0 vs market 182.5. Over 182.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 182.5. Our model puts it at 188.0, a 5.5-point gap. That is a 7.6% edge on the Over 182.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Stephen Coniglio expected to play. Concerns: Coniglio hamstring test, Kelly hip, Buckley hamstring. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Carlton Blues
Hollands available but Weitering still unavailable. Ollie Hollands confirmed in. Jacob Weitering out. Concerns: Weitering calf, Reidy ankle, Camporeale hamstring.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
GWS
GWS hold a Disposals advantage: 389.8 vs 394.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
GWS
Carlton
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R11 | Carlton Blues | 82 - 110 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | GWS | L | O |
| 2024 | R17 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 116 - 104 | Carlton Blues | GWS | W | O |
| 2024 | R6 | Carlton Blues | 117 - 98 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | Carlton | W | O |
| 2023 | R24 | Carlton Blues | 73 - 105 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | GWS | L | O |
| 2023 | R3 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 64 - 74 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | U |
Greater Western Sydney Giants 3-2 in last 5. The most recent clash saw GWS win 82 - 110 at Carlton in R11 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Analysis
Last five: L W W L W. GWS are in mixed recent form. Averaging 109.4 scored and 86.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 389.8. Their home record 5-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W L. Carlton are riding a 4-game winning streak. Averaging 83.0 scored and 74.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 51.4. Their away record 2-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Newman | Carlton Blues | O22.5 | 28.4 | 22.4 | OVER +5.9 |
| Lachlan Ash | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U30.5 | 25.7 | 30.2 | UNDER -4.8 |
| Connor Idun | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U19.5 | 16.1 | 21.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U28.5 | 25.1 | 27.2 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Adam Cerra | Carlton Blues | O18.5 | 21.4 | 18.8 | OVER +2.9 |
| Finn Callaghan | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U28.5 | 25.8 | 27.8 | UNDER -2.7 |
Over Signal: Patrick Cripps (Carlton Blues) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 182.5 | 182.5 | $1.88 | 7.6% edge | Moderate | Model total 188.0 vs market 182.5. Gap: 5.5 points. |
| Prop | Nic Newman Over 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 5.9% edge | None | Model has Nic Newman at 28.4 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on GWS vs Carlton
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Other Round 15 Tips
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