Hawthorn Hawks vs Western Bulldogs
MCG
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Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs, Round 13 2026
Hawthorn Hawks 4-1 in last 5. At the MCG, the model sees Hawthorn winning. Model total 193.8 vs market 175.5. Over 175.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 175.5. Our model puts it at 193.8, a 18.2-point gap. That is a 23.5% edge on the Over 175.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Hawthorn Hawks
Could regain key senior players this week. Tom Barrass, Conor Nash in.
Western Bulldogs
Weightman on verge of long-awaited AFL return. Cody Weightman, Jedd Busslinger in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Hawthorn
Hawthorn hold a Disposals advantage: 385.8 vs 360.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Hawthorn Hawks | 104 - 64 | Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn | W | U |
| 2025 | R13 | Western Bulldogs | 59 - 81 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | U |
| 2024 | R8 | Western Bulldogs | 91 - 98 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | O |
| 2023 | R22 | Hawthorn Hawks | 67 - 64 | Western Bulldogs | Hawthorn | W | U |
| 2023 | R7 | Western Bulldogs | 94 - 65 | Hawthorn Hawks | Western Bulldogs | W | U |
Hawthorn Hawks 4-1 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Hawthorn win 104 - 64 at Hawthorn in R5 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: W W L L D. Hawthorn are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 88.2 scored and 86.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 385.8. Their home record 6-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W L. Western Bulldogs are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 85.6 scored and 88.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.6. Their away record 3-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Treloar | Western Bulldogs | O18.5 | 23.3 | 19.8 | OVER +4.8 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | Hawthorn Hawks | U20.5 | 16.0 | 21.6 | UNDER -4.5 |
| James Sicily | Hawthorn Hawks | U23.5 | 19.1 | 22.2 | UNDER -4.4 |
| Josh Battle | Hawthorn Hawks | U21.5 | 17.4 | 21.0 | UNDER -4.1 |
| Matthew Kennedy | Western Bulldogs | U23.5 | 19.5 | 23.6 | UNDER -4.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | O26.5 | 30.1 | 27.6 | OVER +3.6 |
Over Signal: Dylan Moore (Hawthorn Hawks) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Jai Newcombe (Hawthorn Hawks) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 175.5 | 175.5 | $1.88 | 23.5% edge | Strong | Model total 193.7 vs market 175.5. Gap: 18.2 points. |
| Prop | Adam Treloar Over 18.5 | 18.5 | N/A | 4.8% edge | None | Model has Adam Treloar at 23.3 vs line 18.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs
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Other Round 13 Tips
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