Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
MCG
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Richmond vs North Melbourne, Round 15 2026
Richmond Tigers 1-4 in last 5. At the MCG, the model sees North Melbourne winning. Model total 193.7 vs market 175.5. Over 175.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 175.5. Our model puts it at 193.7, a 18.3-point gap. That is a 23.5% edge on the Over 175.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Richmond Tigers
Several experienced players available again after bye. Toby Nankervis, Taj Hotton, Rhyan Mansell, Kane McAuliffe in.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Paul Curtis out. Injury concerns: Curtis suspension, Powell groin. Riley Hardeman, Finn O'Sullivan, Robert Hansen Jnr expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Richmond
Richmond hold a Disposals advantage: 342 vs 346 per game.
Last 5 Results
Richmond
North Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 130 - 55 | Richmond Tigers | North Melbourne | W | O |
| 2025 | R23 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 135 - 87 | Richmond Tigers | North Melbourne | W | O |
| 2025 | R10 | Richmond Tigers | 74 - 78 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | North Melbourne | W | U |
| 2024 | R21 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 90 - 77 | Richmond Tigers | North Melbourne | W | U |
| 2023 | R23 | Richmond Tigers | 101 - 72 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Richmond | L | U |
Richmond Tigers 1-4 in last 5. The most recent clash saw North Melbourne win 130 - 55 at North Melbourne in R6 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L L W L L. Richmond are on two straight losses. Averaging 68.8 scored and 109.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 342. Their home record 1-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Last five: W L W L L. North Melbourne are in mixed recent form. Averaging 75.6 scored and 114.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 48.2. Their away record 1-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colby McKercher | North Melbourne Kangaroos | O23.5 | 29.0 | 18.6 | OVER +5.5 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U20.5 | 15.6 | 21.4 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Dylan Stephens | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U19.5 | 15.0 | 18.6 | UNDER -4.5 |
| Jayden Short | Richmond Tigers | U22.5 | 18.2 | 23.8 | UNDER -4.3 |
| Dion Prestia | Richmond Tigers | U21.5 | 18.6 | 19.4 | UNDER -2.9 |
| Sam Banks | Richmond Tigers | O17.5 | 19.5 | 15.2 | OVER +2.0 |
Over Signal: Harry Sheezel (North Melbourne Kangaroos) - h2h_outlier
Over Signal: Jacob Hopper (Richmond Tigers) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 175.5 | 175.5 | $1.88 | 23.5% edge | Strong | Model total 193.8 vs market 175.5. Gap: 18.3 points. |
| Prop | Harry Sheezel Over 32.5 | 32.5 | N/A | 9.1% edge | Strong | Model has Harry Sheezel at 41.6 vs line 32.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Richmond vs North Melbourne
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Other Round 15 Tips
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