Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints
SCG
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Sydney vs St Kilda, Round 13 2026
Sydney Swans 1-2 in last 3. At the SCG, the model sees Sydney winning. Model total 197.4 vs market 185.5. Over 185.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 185.5. Our model puts it at 197.4, a 11.8-point gap. That is a 15.8% edge on the Over 185.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 13
Sydney Swans
Lewis Melican out. Injury concerns: Mills calf test, McInerney ankle test, Papley calf, Melican hamstring. Brodie Grundy, Callum Mills, Justin McInerney expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
St Kilda Saints
Sam Flanders out. Injury concerns: Flanders Achilles season, Owens calf test, Wanganeen-Milera calf test. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Mitch Owens, Liam Ryan expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Sydney
Sydney hold a Disposals advantage: 395 vs 374.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Sydney
St Kilda
Recent Meetings
Last 3 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | St Kilda Saints | 87 - 92 | Sydney Swans | Sydney | W | O |
| 2024 | R17 | St Kilda Saints | 84 - 82 | Sydney Swans | St Kilda | W | O |
| 2023 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 66 - 80 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
Sydney Swans 1-2 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Sydney win 87 - 92 at St Kilda in R18 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Last five: W L W W W. Sydney are in mixed recent form. Averaging 113.4 scored and 89.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 395. Their home record 7-0 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: L L W L W. St Kilda are on two straight losses. Averaging 83.6 scored and 90.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 48.6. Their away record 3-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Blakey | Sydney Swans | U27.5 | 23.2 | 28.8 | UNDER -4.3 |
| Hugo Garcia | St Kilda Saints | U19.5 | 15.2 | 19.4 | UNDER -4.3 |
| Sam Wicks | Sydney Swans | U18.5 | 15.1 | 18.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Marcus Windhager | St Kilda Saints | O19.5 | 22.5 | 18.4 | OVER +3.0 |
| Bradley Hill | St Kilda Saints | U20.5 | 17.9 | 21.4 | UNDER -2.6 |
| Callum Mills | Sydney Swans | U23.5 | 22.4 | 23.2 | UNDER -1.1 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 185.5 | 185.5 | $1.88 | 15.8% edge | Strong | Model total 197.3 vs market 185.5. Gap: 11.8 points. |
| Spread | Sydney Swans -30.0 | -30.0 | $1.90 | 14.4% edge | Strong | Model has Sydney Swans winning by 43.0. Market line: 30.0. Edge: 14.4%. |
| Prop | Nick Blakey Under 27.5 | 27.5 | N/A | 4.3% edge | None | Model has Nick Blakey at 23.2 vs line 27.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Sydney vs St Kilda
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Other Round 13 Tips
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