Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies
Adelaide Oval
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Adelaide vs Collingwood, Round 15 2026
Adelaide carry a 3-game winning streak into Adelaide Oval. Model total 169.8 vs market 163.5. Adelaide Crows -14.5 is our top play.
Market has Adelaide by 14.5. Model has Adelaide by 24.3. That 9.8-point gap gives Adelaide a 11.0% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Adelaide Crows
Darcy Fogarty out. Injury concerns: Fogarty suspended until Round 23, Laird 3 weeks, Hinge 1-2 weeks. Taylor Walker expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Collingwood Magpies
Jeremy Howe returns with Daicos expected to travel despite ankle concern. Jeremy Howe, Jeremy Howe, Josh Daicos in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Adelaide
Collingwood hold a Disposals advantage: 377.8 vs 381 per game.
Last 5 Results
Adelaide
Collingwood
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Collingwood Magpies | 79 - 93 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | U |
| 2025 | R23 | Adelaide Crows | 59 - 56 | Collingwood Magpies | Adelaide | L | U |
| 2025 | R10 | Collingwood Magpies | 78 - 68 | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood | L | U |
| 2024 | R10 | Collingwood Magpies | 78 - 74 | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood | L | U |
| 2023 | R15 | Collingwood Magpies | 82 - 80 | Adelaide Crows | Collingwood | L | U |
Adelaide Crows 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 79 - 93 at Collingwood in R1 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Adelaide are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 92.8 scored and 70.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 381. Their home record 7-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Collingwood are riding a 5-game winning streak. Averaging 93.4 scored and 75.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.4. Their away record 4-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan De Goey | Collingwood Magpies | U22.5 | 17.3 | 24.6 | UNDER -5.2 |
| Sam Berry | Adelaide Crows | U20.5 | 15.4 | 21.8 | UNDER -5.1 |
| Josh Daicos | Collingwood Magpies | U25.5 | 20.5 | 28.0 | UNDER -5.0 |
| Dan Houston | Collingwood Magpies | U20.5 | 16.4 | 21.8 | UNDER -4.1 |
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U23.5 | 21.5 | 24.4 | UNDER -2.0 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | O20.5 | 21.2 | 19.4 | OVER +0.7 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Adelaide Crows -14.5 | -14.5 | $1.90 | 11.0% edge | Strong | Model has Adelaide Crows winning by 24.3. Market line: 14.5. Edge: 11.0%. |
| Total | Over 163.5 | 163.5 | $1.88 | 8.3% edge | Moderate | Model total 169.8 vs market 163.5. Gap: 6.3 points. |
| Prop | Jordan De Goey Under 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 5.2% edge | None | Model has Jordan De Goey at 17.3 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Adelaide vs Collingwood
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Other Round 15 Tips
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