Western Bulldogs vs Richmond Tigers
Marvel Stadium
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Western Bulldogs vs Richmond, Round 15 2026
Western Bulldogs 4-0 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Western Bulldogs winning. Model has Western Bulldogs by 49.0. Western Bulldogs -41.5 is our top play.
Market has Western Bulldogs by 41.5. Model has Western Bulldogs by 49.0. That 7.5-point gap gives Western Bulldogs a 8.5% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Western Bulldogs
Riley Garcia out. Injury concerns: Liberatore test, Treloar 4-6 weeks, Vandermeer test. Tom Liberatore expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Richmond Tigers
Noah Balta, Steely Green out. Injury concerns: Hopper season, Balta toe TBC. Luke Trainor, Zane Peucker expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs hold a Disposals advantage: 340.2 vs 336.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Western Bulldogs
Richmond
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R15 | Western Bulldogs | 135 - 56 | Richmond Tigers | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R9 | Richmond Tigers | 42 - 133 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | L | O |
| 2023 | R21 | Western Bulldogs | 126 - 71 | Richmond Tigers | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2023 | R4 | Richmond Tigers | 84 - 89 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | L | O |
Western Bulldogs 4-0 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Western Bulldogs win 135 - 56 at Western Bulldogs in R15 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W L. Western Bulldogs are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 73.0 scored and 82.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 340.2. Their home record 5-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Richmond are in the middle of a 7-game losing run. Averaging 61.8 scored and 97.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 49. Their away record 1-8 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | Richmond Tigers | U21.5 | 17.7 | 20.6 | UNDER -3.8 |
| Tim Taranto | Richmond Tigers | U25.5 | 22.4 | 25.4 | UNDER -3.1 |
| Thomas Liberatore | Western Bulldogs | U23.5 | 21.1 | 21.6 | UNDER -2.4 |
| Dion Prestia | Richmond Tigers | U20.5 | 18.1 | 20.8 | UNDER -2.4 |
| Ed Richards | Western Bulldogs | U26.5 | 24.4 | 24.8 | UNDER -2.1 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | Western Bulldogs | O29.5 | 31.0 | 26.0 | OVER +1.5 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Bulldogs -41.5 | -41.5 | $1.90 | 8.5% edge | Moderate | Model has Western Bulldogs winning by 49.0. Market line: 41.5. Edge: 8.5%. |
| Prop | Jayden Short Under 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 3.8% edge | None | Model has Jayden Short at 17.7 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
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Other Round 15 Tips
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