AFL Odds This Week - Round 20 2026
Live market lines and model edges for every AFL match this round. Updated daily. Last refreshed: 17 June 2026.
Model total 194.9 vs market line 176.5 - an 18.4-point gap. MCG Friday 7:40pm. Both sides scoring 100+ regularly. Cats off 102-75 over St Kilda, Dees off 92-76 over North and 111-65 over Richmond in R18. View full tip →
Round 20 Spread, Total and Head-to-Head Odds
| Match | When | Line | Total | Edge | Full tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide v Collingwood | ADE -7.5 | Over 163.5 | 11.0% (Spread) | Thu 7:00pm Adelaide Oval | |
| Melbourne v Geelong | GEE +14.5 | Over 176.5 | 28.4% (Over) | Fri 7:40pm MCG | |
| Fremantle v West Coast | FRE -22.0 | Under 171.5 | 22.0% (Spread) | Fri 6:10pm Optus (Derby) | |
| Carlton v Gold Coast | CARL -1.5 | Over 171.0 | 9.9% (Over) | Sat 1:05pm Marvel | |
| Hawthorn v Essendon | HAW -25.5 | Over 170.5 | 12.1% (Over) | Sat 4:15pm MCG | |
| GWS v Sydney | SYD -8.5 | Over 184.0 | 14.9% (Over) | Sat 4:35pm ENGIE (Derby) | |
| Western Bulldogs v Richmond | WBD -25.5 | Under 172.5 | 8.5% (Spread) | Sat 7:40pm Marvel | |
| Brisbane v Port Adelaide | BRIS -21.5 | Over 188.0 | 12.0% (Port +) | Sun 1:10pm Gabba | |
| North Melbourne v St Kilda | NTH +1.5 | Over 175.5 | 13.2% (Over) | Sun 3:15pm Marvel |
How We Find the Edge
Every market line is compared against our model output. Where the model and the market diverge by more than 10%, we flag it. This Round 20 the model is Overs-heavy again - five of nine totals flagged. Melbourne vs Geelong tops the totals board at 28.4% edge (model 194.9). Fremantle -22.0 in the Western Derby tops the spreads at 22.0%. GWS vs Sydney Over 184.0 in the Sydney Derby third at 14.9%.
Where We Source Odds
We display the best available market lines from Australian licensed bookmakers including Dabble, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds and Bet365. Lines move - we update them at the start of each day Tue through Mon and again after team lists drop on Thursday. The model edge is calculated against the median line, not the best price, so the actual play is usually a few cents better than what the table shows.
For the value play sheet, head to our full Round 13 tips page. For our long-term track record on tips, see track record.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best AFL odds this week?
The biggest model edge this round is Adelaide v Geelong Over 169.5 at 25.8% - our model has the total at 189.4. The biggest spread edge is Collingwood -1.5 against Melbourne in the King's Birthday Big Freeze 12 at 16.5%.
How often are these odds updated?
Twice a day during a round - once at 8am AEST and once at 11pm AEST. After team lists drop on Thursday afternoon, every line is recomputed and the page is refreshed.
Are these lines the best price available?
No - we show median lines for edge calculation. Best price is usually a few cents better. We do not advertise specific bookmakers on this page but the betting sites hub lists current free-bet offers.
Where can I see the model's full reasoning?
Every match links to a full tip page with stats-first analysis: head-to-head record, recent form, key player props, team news and the exact model breakdown of how we got to the edge. Click "View →" on any row above.