AFL Odds This Week - Round 13 2026
Live market lines and model edges for every AFL match this round. Updated daily. Last refreshed: 1 June 2026.
Model total 189.4 vs market line 166.5 - a 22.9-point gap. Thursday night opener at Adelaide Oval. Line shortened after teamlists. View full tip →
Round 13 Spread, Total and Head-to-Head Odds
| Match | When | Line | Total | Edge | Full tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide v Geelong | Thu 7:30pm | Geelong -8.5 | 166.5 | Over 28.4% | View → |
| Hawthorn v Bulldogs | Fri 7:40pm | Hawthorn -21.0 | 175.5 | Over 23.5% | View → |
| North Melbourne v Fremantle | Sat 2:15pm | North +25.5 | 178.5 | Over 15.0% | View → |
| Gold Coast v Brisbane | Sat 5:15pm | Gold Coast -10.5 | 188.5 | Over 26.8% | View → |
| West Coast v Port Adelaide | Sat 8:15pm | Port +7.5 | 172.5 | Port 10.5% | View → |
| Sydney v St Kilda | Sun 3:15pm | Sydney -30.0 | 185.5 | Over 15.8% | View → |
| Essendon v Carlton | Sun 7:20pm | Carlton -30.5 | 172.5 | Over 19.9% | View → |
| Collingwood v Melbourne | Mon 3:15pm | Coll -0.5 | 180.5 | Coll 15.4% | View → |
How We Find the Edge
Every market line is compared against our model output. Where the model and the market diverge by more than 10%, we flag it. This Round 13 the model is leaning Overs - six of the eight totals are flagged at edges above 14%. The biggest gap is West Coast v Port Adelaide which is missing a posted total because of late market movement; for the seven matches with a total posted, every single one is flagged Over.
Where We Source Odds
We display the best available market lines from Australian licensed bookmakers including Dabble, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds and Bet365. Lines move - we update them at the start of each day Tue through Mon and again after team lists drop on Thursday. The model edge is calculated against the median line, not the best price, so the actual play is usually a few cents better than what the table shows.
For the value play sheet, head to our full Round 13 tips page. For our long-term track record on tips, see track record.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best AFL odds this week?
The biggest model edge this round is Adelaide v Geelong Over 169.5 at 25.8% - our model has the total at 189.4. The biggest spread edge is Collingwood -1.5 against Melbourne in the King's Birthday Big Freeze 12 at 16.5%.
How often are these odds updated?
Twice a day during a round - once at 8am AEST and once at 11pm AEST. After team lists drop on Thursday afternoon, every line is recomputed and the page is refreshed.
Are these lines the best price available?
No - we show median lines for edge calculation. Best price is usually a few cents better. We do not advertise specific bookmakers on this page but the betting sites hub lists current free-bet offers.
Where can I see the model's full reasoning?
Every match links to a full tip page with stats-first analysis: head-to-head record, recent form, key player props, team news and the exact model breakdown of how we got to the edge. Click "View →" on any row above.