AFL Odds This Week - Round 24 2026
Live market lines and model edges for every AFL match this round. Updated daily. Last refreshed: 17 June 2026.
Model total 201.9 vs market line 181.5 - a 20.4-point gap. MCG Friday 7:40pm. Pies coming off the 92-92 Hawthorn draw with Daicos already $1.01 Brownlow favourite. Lions up 42 in QClash. Both average 100+ in last four. View full tip →
Round 24 Spread, Total and Head-to-Head Odds
| Match | When | Line | Total | Edge | Full tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Kilda v Gold Coast | STK -13.5 | Over 179.5 | 5.2% (Over) | Thu 7:30pm Marvel | |
| Collingwood v Brisbane | BRIS -5.5 | Over 181.5 | 25.9% (Over) | Fri 7:40pm MCG | |
| Carlton v Fremantle | FRE -17.5 | Under 181.5 | 7.9% (Spread) | Sat 1:15pm Marvel | |
| Melbourne v Bulldogs | MEL -16.5 | Over 182.5 | 12.5% (Over) | Sat 4:15pm MCG | |
| Geelong v Richmond | GEE -60.5 | Under 184.5 | 7.2% (Spread) | Sat 7:45pm GMHBA | |
| Adelaide v GWS | GWS -25.5 | Over 177.5 | 10.0% (Spread) | Sat 7:40pm Adelaide Oval | |
| Essendon v Port Adelaide | POR -6.5 | Under 176.5 | 10.5% (Under) | Sun 12:20pm Marvel | |
| Sydney v North Melbourne | SYD -37.5 | Over 189.5 | 22.3% (Over) | Sun 3:20pm SCG | |
| West Coast v Hawthorn | HAW -46.5 | Over 181.5 | 13.7% (Spread) | Sun 5:20pm Optus |
How We Find the Edge
Every market line is compared against our model output. Where the model and the market diverge by more than 10%, we flag it. This Round 24 the model is Overs-heavy again - five Overs in the top edges. Collingwood/Brisbane Over 181.5 at the MCG Friday tops the board at 25.9% edge (model 201.9). Sydney/North Over 189.5 at the SCG second at 22.3%. Melbourne/Bulldogs Over 182.5 fourth at 12.5%. Essendon/Port Under 176.5 the only Under of the round at 10.5%.
Where We Source Odds
We display the best available market lines from Australian licensed bookmakers including Dabble, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds and Bet365. Lines move - we update them at the start of each day Tue through Mon and again after team lists drop on Thursday. The model edge is calculated against the median line, not the best price, so the actual play is usually a few cents better than what the table shows.
For the value play sheet, head to our full Round 13 tips page. For our long-term track record on tips, see track record.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best AFL odds this week?
The biggest model edge this round is Adelaide v Geelong Over 169.5 at 25.8% - our model has the total at 189.4. The biggest spread edge is Collingwood -1.5 against Melbourne in the King's Birthday Big Freeze 12 at 16.5%.
How often are these odds updated?
Twice a day during a round - once at 8am AEST and once at 11pm AEST. After team lists drop on Thursday afternoon, every line is recomputed and the page is refreshed.
Are these lines the best price available?
No - we show median lines for edge calculation. Best price is usually a few cents better. We do not advertise specific bookmakers on this page but the betting sites hub lists current free-bet offers.
Where can I see the model's full reasoning?
Every match links to a full tip page with stats-first analysis: head-to-head record, recent form, key player props, team news and the exact model breakdown of how we got to the edge. Click "View →" on any row above.