AFL Odds This Week - Round 22 2026
Live market lines and model edges for every AFL match this round. Updated daily. Last refreshed: 17 June 2026.
Model total 216.4 vs market line 187.0 - a 29.4-point gap. Gabba Friday 7:40pm. Top-four blockbuster. Hawks off 99-83 over North at UTAS (four in a row), Lions humbled by Carlton 154-78 but scoring stayed at 78. Both averaging 100+. View full tip →
Round 22 Spread, Total and Head-to-Head Odds
| Match | When | Line | Total | Edge | Full tip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs v North Melbourne | WBD -19.0 | Over 171.0 | 8.1% (Spread) | Thu 7:30pm Marvel | |
| Brisbane v Hawthorn | HAW -4.5 | Over 187.0 | 31.8% (Over) | Fri 7:40pm Gabba | |
| Melbourne v Fremantle | FRE -12.0 | Over 174.5 | 16.2% (Over) | Sat 1:15pm MCG | |
| Sydney v Port Adelaide | SYD -37.5 | Over 176.5 | 7.6% (Over) | Sat 4:15pm SCG | |
| Geelong v Essendon | GEE -64.5 | Over 182.5 | 6.6% (Over) | Sat 4:35pm GMHBA | |
| Adelaide v Richmond | ADE -55.0 | Over 159.5 | 19.9% (Over) | Sat 7:05pm Adelaide Oval | |
| GWS v Gold Coast | GWS -18.5 | Over 169.5 | 30.1% (Over) | Sun 1:10pm Manuka | |
| West Coast v Collingwood | COLL -17.5 | Over 170.5 | 9.4% (Coll+) | Sun 2:10pm Optus | |
| St Kilda v Carlton | STK -5.5 | Over 175.5 | 17.8% (Spread) | Sun 7:20pm Marvel |
How We Find the Edge
Every market line is compared against our model output. Where the model and the market diverge by more than 10%, we flag it. This Round 22 the model is Overs-heavy AGAIN - seven of nine totals flagged. Brisbane/Hawthorn tops the board at 31.8% edge (model 216.4). GWS/Gold Coast Over 169.5 at Manuka second at 30.1% (Suns 10 straight losses). Adelaide/Richmond Over 159.5 third at 19.9%. St Kilda -5.5 vs Carlton at Marvel is the biggest spread edge at 17.8%.
Where We Source Odds
We display the best available market lines from Australian licensed bookmakers including Dabble, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Neds and Bet365. Lines move - we update them at the start of each day Tue through Mon and again after team lists drop on Thursday. The model edge is calculated against the median line, not the best price, so the actual play is usually a few cents better than what the table shows.
For the value play sheet, head to our full Round 13 tips page. For our long-term track record on tips, see track record.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best AFL odds this week?
The biggest model edge this round is Adelaide v Geelong Over 169.5 at 25.8% - our model has the total at 189.4. The biggest spread edge is Collingwood -1.5 against Melbourne in the King's Birthday Big Freeze 12 at 16.5%.
How often are these odds updated?
Twice a day during a round - once at 8am AEST and once at 11pm AEST. After team lists drop on Thursday afternoon, every line is recomputed and the page is refreshed.
Are these lines the best price available?
No - we show median lines for edge calculation. Best price is usually a few cents better. We do not advertise specific bookmakers on this page but the betting sites hub lists current free-bet offers.
Where can I see the model's full reasoning?
Every match links to a full tip page with stats-first analysis: head-to-head record, recent form, key player props, team news and the exact model breakdown of how we got to the edge. Click "View →" on any row above.