Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions
MCG
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Collingwood vs Brisbane, Round 24 2026
Collingwood Magpies 3-2 in last 5. At the MCG, the model sees Brisbane winning. Model total 201.9 vs market 181.5. Over 181.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 181.5. Our model puts it at 201.9, a 20.4-point gap. That is a 25.9% edge on the Over 181.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 24
Collingwood Magpies
Isaac Quaynor out. Injury concerns: Howe arm test, Maynard knee/hamstring test, Sidebottom illness test, Lipinski calf 1 week, Perryman hamstring 2-3 weeks. Jeremy Howe, Brayden Maynard, Steele Sidebottom expected to.
Brisbane Lions
Gallop has completed his suspension and is available while Reville is also pushing for a recall. Ty Gallop, Bruce Reville in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Collingwood
Collingwood hold a Disposals advantage: 373.4 vs 378.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Collingwood
Brisbane
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Brisbane Lions | 119 - 65 | Collingwood Magpies | Brisbane | W | O |
| 2025 | R21 | Collingwood Magpies | 65 - 92 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | U |
| 2025 | R6 | Brisbane Lions | 53 - 105 | Collingwood Magpies | Collingwood | L | U |
| 2024 | R23 | Collingwood Magpies | 79 - 78 | Brisbane Lions | Collingwood | W | U |
| 2024 | R3 | Brisbane Lions | 72 - 92 | Collingwood Magpies | Collingwood | L | U |
Collingwood Magpies 3-2 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Brisbane win 119 - 65 at Brisbane in R4 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Last five: D W L W W. Collingwood are in mixed recent form. Averaging 95.8 scored and 86.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 373.4. Their home record 6-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: W W L W W. Brisbane are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 103.4 scored and 80.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 56. Their away record 7-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 181.5 | 181.5 | $1.88 | 25.9% edge | Strong | Model total 201.9 vs market 181.5. Gap: 20.4 points. |
| Spread | Collingwood Magpies +27.5 | 27.5 | $1.90 | 23.3% edge | Strong | Model has Brisbane Lions winning by 5.7. Market line: 27.5. Edge: 23.3%. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Collingwood vs Brisbane
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Other Round 24 Tips
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