Melbourne Demons vs Western Bulldogs
MCG
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Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs, Round 24 2026
Melbourne carry a 3-game winning streak into the MCG. Model total 191.8 vs market 182.5. Over 182.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 182.5. Our model puts it at 191.8, a 9.3-point gap. That is a 12.5% edge on the Over 182.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 24
Melbourne Demons
Jacob van Rooyen out. Injury concerns: Van Rooyen suspension 3 weeks, Howes arm 2-3 weeks. Tom McDonald, Jake Melksham, Aidan Johnson expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Western Bulldogs
Dale and Budarick could return if they pass fitness tests while Bontempelli may again be rested ahead of the wildcard round. Bailey Dale, Connor Budarick in. Nick Coffield out.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Melbourne
Western Bulldogs hold a Disposals advantage: 352.2 vs 365.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Melbourne
Western Bulldogs
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Western Bulldogs | 93 - 90 | Melbourne Demons | Western Bulldogs | W | U |
| 2025 | R22 | Melbourne Demons | 99 - 105 | Western Bulldogs | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R21 | Western Bulldogs | 110 - 59 | Melbourne Demons | Western Bulldogs | W | O |
| 2024 | R1 | Melbourne Demons | 109 - 64 | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | W | O |
| 2023 | R1 | Melbourne Demons | 115 - 65 | Western Bulldogs | Melbourne | W | O |
Melbourne Demons 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Western Bulldogs win 93 - 90 at Western Bulldogs in R11 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Melbourne are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 109.6 scored and 92.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 365.4. Their home record 8-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Western Bulldogs Form Analysis
Last five: D L L W W. Western Bulldogs are in mixed recent form. Averaging 76.4 scored and 75.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 51.8. Their away record 6-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 182.5 | 182.5 | $1.88 | 12.5% edge | Strong | Model total 191.8 vs market 182.5. Gap: 9.3 points. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
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Other Round 24 Tips
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