Sun 23 Aug · Marvel Stadium · 12:20pm AEST
Round 22 was one to forget. Only Melbourne/Fremantle Over cashed at 222 - a 4-point thriller the Dees won 113-109. Everything else missed. Brisbane/Hawthorn Over 187.0 landed at 183. GWS/Gold Coast Over 169.5 missed by 13.5. Adelaide/Richmond Over 159.5 missed by 42.5 in a 63-54 arm-wrestle. St Kilda -5.5 blew up as Carlton crushed them by 44 - Wanganeen-Milera and Mason Wood both season-ending. Track record now 55 bets, 26-29, ROI -9.7%.
R23 was not tipped (workbook gap). Fremantle beat Adelaide by 24 at Optus to lock the minor premiership - Crows dropped 4-to-7. Hawthorn/Collingwood 92-92 and Bulldogs/Carlton 82-82 - two draws, first round with two draws since 1977. Daicos $1.01 Brownlow favourite. Curnow leads Coleman with 66. Melbourne belted Port 132-56. Sydney locked 2nd with two home finals after Gulden posted a career-best 47 disposals.
Round 24, last home-and-away round. Nine games, no byes. Collingwood/Brisbane Over 181.5 at the MCG Friday night is the standout at 25.9% edge (model 201.9). Sydney/North Over 189.5 at the SCG second at 22.3% (Swans are kicking freely with nothing to lose). West Coast +46.5 vs Hawthorn is the biggest spread edge at 13.7% - Eagles still terrible but Hawks come off two draws. Melbourne/Bulldogs Over 182.5 fourth at 12.5%. Essendon/Port Under 176.5 the only Under of the board at 10.5%.
Our highest-confidence plays for Round 20, ranked by how far our model disagrees with the bookmaker line. A higher edge means our model sees more value. Nine games this round, no byes.
Collingwood vs Brisbane
MCG Friday 7:40pm - blockbuster. Pies (12-8-2, 8th, 106.1%) coming off the 92-92 Hawthorn draw with Daicos already sealed as the $1.01 Brownlow favourite. Lions (15-7, 3rd, 119.5%) up 42 in the QClash. Both sides average 100+ in the last four. Model has Brisbane by 5.7, but the total is where the value sits: Over 181.5 at 25.9% edge (model 201.9).
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Sydney / North Over 189.5
22.3% edge. Sydney (17-5, 2nd) just put 112 on Essendon with Gulden posting a career-best 47 disposals and Curnow kicking 4 to push toward Coleman #3. North winless in five - the Swans have locked 2nd + 2 home finals and will kick freely at the SCG. Model total 206.8 vs market 189.5 - a 17-point gap.
Here's what the numbers are telling us heading into Round 24. Nine matches, no byes. Last home-and-away round with wildcard and top-eight spots still live. Adelaide (7th) has slipped out of double-chance range; the Crows and GWS (12th) face each other.
25.9% edge - biggest of the round. Model total 201.9 vs market 181.5 at the MCG Friday night. Lions (15-7, 3rd) coming off a 42-point QClash comfort. Pies (8th) come off a 92-92 draw with Hawthorn. Daicos already the $1.01 Brownlow favourite; Curnow-less Blues loss opens up midfield room.
22.3% edge. Sydney (17-5, 2nd, 134.5%) just belted Essendon 112-76 with Gulden posting career-best 47 disposals. Model total 206.8 vs market 189.5 at the SCG. North winless in five - Swans locked 2nd + 2 home finals.
Dockers locked in top-two + double chance after beating Bulldogs 78-41 at Optus (their ninth Fri/Thu-night win). Sydney 15-5 second. Hawthorn 14-5-1 third. Then a three-way tie for 4-6: Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne all 13-7 on 52 points.
Optus Sunday twilight. Market has Hawks -46.5 - the biggest line of the round. Model has WCE +34.2, still a heavy Hawthorn win but a 13.7% edge to the Eagles on the spread. Hawks come off 2 draws - Pies and Bulldogs.
After Round 23 - Updated 20 August 2026
| # | Team | P | W | L | Pts | % | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fremantle
|
22 | 19 | 3 | 76 | 142.5% | WWWWW |
| 2 |
Sydney
|
22 | 17 | 5 | 68 | 134.5% | WWWWW |
| 3 |
Brisbane
|
22 | 15 | 7 | 60 | 119.5% | WWLWW |
| 4 |
Hawthorn
|
22 | 14 | 6-2 | 60 | 117.3% | WWLWD |
| 5 |
Melbourne
|
22 | 15 | 7 | 60 | 111.2% | WWWWW |
| 6 |
Geelong
|
22 | 14 | 8 | 56 | 120.2% | WWWWW |
| 7 |
Adelaide
|
22 | 14 | 8 | 56 | 115.1% | WLWWL |
| 8 |
Collingwood
|
22 | 12 | 8 | 52 | 106.1% | WLLWD |
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20-23 August 2026
Top contenders - updated 20 August 2026 (post-R23).
R22 was a bloodbath for the model. Only Melbourne/Fremantle Over 174.5 cashed at 222 (a 4-point thriller). Brisbane/Hawthorn Over 187.0 missed by 4 (183). GWS/Gold Coast Over 169.5 missed by 13.5 (156) after the Suns ended a 10-match losing streak with a controversial late Humphrey goal upheld on review. Adelaide/Richmond Over 159.5 missed by 42.5 in a 63-54 arm-wrestle. St Kilda -5.5 blew up as the Blues won by 44 - Wanganeen-Milera and Mason Wood both season-ending injuries.
R23 was not tipped. Fremantle beat Adelaide by 24 to drop the Crows from top-4 to 7th. Hawthorn/Collingwood drew 92-92 and Bulldogs/Carlton drew 82-82 - the first round with 2 draws since 1977. Nick Daicos is now $1.01 Brownlow favourite. Sydney locked 2nd with 2 home finals. Track record after R22: 55 bets, 26-29, ROI -9.7%.
St Kilda
