Round 24 - Up Next
ROUND 14 · SAT 22 AUG

Adelaide Crows vs Greater Western Sydney Giants

99.3 - 82.7
Model Score

Adelaide Oval

Greater Western Sydney Giants +25.5 (10.0% edge)

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Tips and Prediction

Adelaide vs GWS, Round 24 2026

The Verdict

Adelaide Crows 2-2 in last 4. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Adelaide winning. Model total 182.0 vs market 177.5. Greater Western Sydney Giants +25.5 is our top play.

Why This Matters

Market has Adelaide by 25.5. Model has Adelaide by 16.6. That 8.9-point gap gives GWS a 10.0% spread edge.

Team News

Form and Injury Context

Latest information heading into Round 24

Adelaide Crows

Neal-Bullen and Walker are due to return while Milera and Bond will push for selection if they pass fitness tests. Alex Neal-Bullen, Taylor Walker, Wayne Milera, Hugh Bond in.

Greater Western Sydney Giants

Bedford and O'Halloran could both return for the season finale if they clear training and fitness tests. Toby Bedford, Xavier O'Halloran in.

Statistical Comparison

Key Stats Dashboard

Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season

Adelaide
GWS
64.2 Tackles 67
GWS adv
358 Disposals 360
GWS adv
67.8 Intercepts 67.8
Adelaide adv
70.8 Turnovers 63.6
GWS adv
41.4 Clearances 33.6
Adelaide adv
The Key Number

Adelaide hold a Disposals advantage: 358 vs 360 per game.

Form Guide

Last 5 Results

Adelaide
LWWLW
Avg Scored91.4
Avg Conceded83.6
O/U Record10-11-0
ATS Record11-10
Home Record8-3
GWS
WLWLL
Avg Scored83.0
Avg Conceded81.0
O/U Record9-12-0
ATS Record8-13
Away Record2-8
Head-to-Head

Recent Meetings

Last 4 matches

SeasonRndHomeScoreAwayWinnerATSO/U
2025 R6 Adelaide Crows 52 - 34 Greater Western Sydney Giants Adelaide W U
2024 R16 Adelaide Crows 94 - 78 Greater Western Sydney Giants Adelaide W O
2023 R18 Adelaide Crows 57 - 71 Greater Western Sydney Giants GWS L U
2023 R1 Greater Western Sydney Giants 106 - 90 Adelaide Crows GWS W O

Adelaide Crows 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 52 - 34 at Adelaide in R6 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.

Matchup Analysis

Form Analysis

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis

Last five: L W W L W. Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 91.4 scored and 83.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 358. Their home record 8-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.

Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Analysis

Last five: W L W L L. GWS are in mixed recent form. Averaging 83.0 scored and 81.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.2. Their away record 2-8 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.

Player Markets

Player Props & Watch List

Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads

PlayerTeamLineModel5g AvgLean

Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.

H2H Standout Performers

Jordan Dawson (Adelaide)
Jordan Dawson (Adelaide), Midfielder. 26.0 disp / 1.16 gls avg. 27 disposals vs Greater Western Sydney Giants R6 2025.
Wayne Milera (Adelaide)
Wayne Milera (Adelaide), Defender. 25.6 disp / 0.12 gls avg.
Rory Laird (Adelaide)
Rory Laird (Adelaide), Defender. 23.5 disp / 0.06 gls avg.
Clayton Oliver (GWS)
Clayton Oliver (GWS), Midfielder. 30.5 disp / 0.18 gls avg.
Lachie Ash (GWS)
Lachie Ash (GWS), Defender. 28.8 disp / 0.05 gls avg. 29 disposals vs Adelaide Crows R6 2025.
Lachie Whitfield (GWS)
Lachie Whitfield (GWS), Defender. 28.4 disp / 0.05 gls avg. 39 disposals vs Adelaide Crows R6 2025.
Model Bets

Ranked Bet Recommendations

MarketBetLinePriceEdgeConfidenceNotes
Spread Greater Western Sydney Giants +25.5 25.5 $1.90 10.0% edge Strong Model has Adelaide Crows winning by 16.6. Market line: 25.5. Edge: 10.0%.
Total Over 177.5 177.5 $1.88 6.2% edge Moderate Model total 182.0 vs market 177.5. Gap: 4.5 points.
Our Verdict

Prediction & Best Bet

Predicted Score
99.3 - 82.7
Adelaide - GWS
Best Prop
See player props table
Top Edge
Spread: 10.0%
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