Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power
Marvel Stadium
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Essendon vs Port Adelaide, Round 24 2026
Essendon Bombers 1-4 in last 5. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Port Adelaide winning. Model total 168.8 vs market 176.5. Under 176.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 176.5. Our model puts it at 168.8, a 7.7-point gap. That is a 10.5% edge on the Under 176.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 24
Essendon Bombers
Sam Durham, Darcy Parish out. Injury concerns: Durham soreness season, Parish calf season. Zach Merrett expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Port Adelaide Power
Aliir Aliir, Jason Horne-Francis out. Injury concerns: Butters ankle test, Aliir concussion season, Horne-Francis knee season. Darcy Byrne-Jones, Harrison Ramm expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Essendon
Port Adelaide hold a Disposals advantage: 335.8 vs 340.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Essendon
Port Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Port Adelaide Power | 133 - 70 | Essendon Bombers | Port Adelaide | W | O |
| 2025 | R3 | Essendon Bombers | 72 - 60 | Port Adelaide Power | Essendon | W | U |
| 2024 | R4 | Port Adelaide Power | 111 - 42 | Essendon Bombers | Port Adelaide | W | U |
| 2023 | R16 | Essendon Bombers | 74 - 78 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | W | U |
| 2023 | R8 | Port Adelaide Power | 92 - 87 | Essendon Bombers | Port Adelaide | L | O |
Essendon Bombers 1-4 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Port Adelaide win 133 - 70 at Port Adelaide in R2 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L W. Essendon are in the middle of a 4-game losing run. Averaging 61.0 scored and 114.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 340.4. Their home record 2-9 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Port Adelaide are in the middle of a 6-game losing run. Averaging 66.2 scored and 120.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 48.4. Their away record 2-8 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 176.5 | 176.5 | $1.88 | 10.5% edge | Strong | Model total 168.8 vs market 176.5. Gap: 7.7 points. |
| Spread | Port Adelaide Power -6.5 | -6.5 | $1.90 | 8.4% edge | Moderate | Model has Port Adelaide Power winning by 13.9. Market line: 6.5. Edge: 8.4%. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Essendon vs Port Adelaide
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Other Round 24 Tips
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