Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers
GMHBA Stadium
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Geelong vs Richmond, Round 24 2026
Geelong carry a 5-game winning streak into GMHBA Stadium. Model has Geelong by 66.9. Geelong Cats -60.5 is our top play.
Market has Geelong by 60.5. Model has Geelong by 66.9. That 6.4-point gap gives Geelong a 7.2% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 24
Geelong Cats
Martin returns after being managed while Cameron and De Koning face fitness tests and Worpel will miss several weeks. Jack Martin, Jeremy Cameron, Sam De Koning in. James Worpel out.
Richmond Tigers
Dion Prestia, Nathan Broad, Sam Lalor out. Injury concerns: Lalor knee soreness season, Balta toe season, Hopper ankle season. Campbell Gray, James Trezise, Kane McAuliffe, Tyler Sonsie expected to play.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Geelong
Richmond hold a Disposals advantage: 339.4 vs 369.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Geelong
Richmond
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Richmond Tigers | 64 - 103 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | W | U |
| 2025 | R17 | Geelong Cats | 124 - 52 | Richmond Tigers | Geelong | W | U |
| 2024 | R12 | Geelong Cats | 99 - 69 | Richmond Tigers | Geelong | L | U |
| 2023 | R9 | Richmond Tigers | 102 - 78 | Geelong Cats | Richmond | W | O |
Geelong Cats 3-1 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 64 - 103 at Richmond in R24 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Geelong are riding a 5-game winning streak. Averaging 111.6 scored and 80.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 369.6. Their home record 10-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L L W L L. Richmond are on two straight losses. Averaging 56.6 scored and 91.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 46.6. Their away record 1-10 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Geelong Cats -60.5 | -60.5 | $1.90 | 7.2% edge | Moderate | Model has Geelong Cats winning by 66.9. Market line: 60.5. Edge: 7.2%. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Geelong vs Richmond
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Other Round 24 Tips
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