Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers
Adelaide Oval
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Adelaide vs Richmond, Round 22 2026
Adelaide Crows 2-2 in last 4. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees Adelaide winning. Model total 174.6 vs market 159.5. Over 159.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 159.5. Our model puts it at 174.6, a 15.1-point gap. That is a 19.9% edge on the Over 159.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
Adelaide Crows
Team news not yet available.
Richmond Tigers
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Adelaide
Richmond hold a Disposals advantage: 337.6 vs 373 per game.
Last 5 Results
Adelaide
Richmond
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Richmond Tigers | 61 - 98 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | U |
| 2025 | R16 | Richmond Tigers | 54 - 122 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | O |
| 2024 | R13 | Adelaide Crows | 71 - 79 | Richmond Tigers | Richmond | L | U |
| 2023 | R2 | Adelaide Crows | 76 - 108 | Richmond Tigers | Richmond | L | O |
Adelaide Crows 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 61 - 98 at Richmond in R9 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: W L W W W. Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 106.6 scored and 75.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 373. Their home record 7-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: W L L L L. Richmond are in mixed recent form. Averaging 64.2 scored and 97.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 46. Their away record 1-9 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U27.5 | 21.5 | 26.2 | UNDER -6.0 |
| Jack Ross | Richmond Tigers | U24.5 | 21.4 | 21.0 | UNDER -3.1 |
| Tim Taranto | Richmond Tigers | U25.5 | 22.4 | 27.0 | UNDER -3.1 |
| Jayden Short | Richmond Tigers | U20.5 | 17.7 | 19.2 | UNDER -2.8 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | U21.5 | 21.2 | 18.2 | UNDER -0.3 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 159.5 | 159.5 | $1.88 | 19.9% edge | Strong | Model total 174.6 vs market 159.5. Gap: 15.1 points. |
| Spread | Adelaide Crows -55.0 | -55.0 | $1.90 | 9.1% edge | Strong | Model has Adelaide Crows winning by 63.1. Market line: 55.0. Edge: 9.1%. |
| Prop | Jordan Dawson Under 27.5 | 27.5 | N/A | 6.0% edge | None | Model has Jordan Dawson at 21.5 vs line 27.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Adelaide vs Richmond
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Other Round 22 Tips
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