Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers
MCG
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Melbourne vs Fremantle, Round 22 2026
Fremantle arrive on a 4-game winning run. Model total 186.6 vs market 174.5. Over 174.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 174.5. Our model puts it at 186.6, a 12.1-point gap. That is a 16.2% edge on the Over 174.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
Melbourne Demons
Team news not yet available.
Fremantle Dockers
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Melbourne
Fremantle hold a Disposals advantage: 367.2 vs 371.2 per game.
Last 5 Results
Melbourne
Fremantle
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R2 | Fremantle Dockers | 118 - 70 | Melbourne Demons | Fremantle | W | U |
| 2025 | R6 | Melbourne Demons | 107 - 97 | Fremantle Dockers | Melbourne | W | O |
| 2024 | R19 | Fremantle Dockers | 116 - 66 | Melbourne Demons | Fremantle | W | O |
| 2024 | R12 | Melbourne Demons | 49 - 141 | Fremantle Dockers | Fremantle | L | O |
| 2023 | R11 | Melbourne Demons | 72 - 79 | Fremantle Dockers | Fremantle | L | U |
Melbourne Demons 1-4 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Fremantle win 118 - 70 at Fremantle in R2 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: W L W W W. Melbourne are in mixed recent form. Averaging 107.8 scored and 90.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 371.2. Their home record 7-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Fremantle Dockers Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W L. Fremantle are riding a 4-game winning streak. Averaging 98.4 scored and 68.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 54.6. Their away record 8-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Bolton | Fremantle Dockers | U22.5 | 16.7 | 20.8 | UNDER -5.8 |
| Clayton Oliver | Melbourne Demons | U28.5 | 24.5 | 28.6 | UNDER -4.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | Fremantle Dockers | U25.5 | 22.7 | 25.0 | UNDER -2.8 |
| Christian Petracca | Melbourne Demons | U23.5 | 21.4 | 22.4 | UNDER -2.1 |
| Jake Bowey | Melbourne Demons | U23.5 | 21.8 | 26.6 | UNDER -1.7 |
| Jordan Clark | Fremantle Dockers | U23.5 | 22.1 | 21.8 | UNDER -1.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 174.5 | 174.5 | $1.88 | 16.2% edge | Strong | Model total 186.6 vs market 174.5. Gap: 12.1 points. |
| Spread | Fremantle Dockers -12.0 | -12.0 | $1.90 | 7.3% edge | Moderate | Model has Fremantle Dockers winning by 18.4. Market line: 12.0. Edge: 7.3%. |
| Prop | Shai Bolton Under 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 5.8% edge | None | Model has Shai Bolton at 16.7 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Melbourne vs Fremantle
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Other Round 22 Tips
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