Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks
Gabba
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Brisbane vs Hawthorn, Round 22 2026
Hawthorn arrive on a 4-game winning run. Model total 213.3 vs market 187.0. Over 187.0 is our top play.
The market has the total at 187.0. Our model puts it at 213.3, a 26.4-point gap. That is a 31.8% edge on the Over 187.0. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
Brisbane Lions
Team news not yet available.
Hawthorn Hawks
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Brisbane
Hawthorn hold a Disposals advantage: 403.4 vs 390.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Brisbane
Hawthorn
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Brisbane Lions | 89 - 79 | Hawthorn Hawks | Brisbane | W | U |
| 2025 | R11 | Hawthorn Hawks | 60 - 93 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | U |
| 2024 | R11 | Hawthorn Hawks | 100 - 75 | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn | W | O |
| 2023 | R13 | Hawthorn Hawks | 98 - 73 | Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn | W | U |
Brisbane Lions 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Brisbane win 89 - 79 at Brisbane in R24 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W W. Brisbane are in mixed recent form. Averaging 113.8 scored and 90.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 390.6. Their home record 6-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W L. Hawthorn are riding a 4-game winning streak. Averaging 109.2 scored and 67.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 61. Their away record 5-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashcroft | Brisbane Lions | U29.5 | 24.6 | 31.8 | UNDER -4.9 |
| Jarman Impey | Hawthorn Hawks | U25.5 | 21.3 | 25.4 | UNDER -4.2 |
| James Worpel | Hawthorn Hawks | U23.5 | 19.7 | 20.6 | UNDER -3.8 |
| Josh Dunkley | Brisbane Lions | O21.5 | 24.6 | 21.2 | OVER +3.1 |
| Josh Ward | Hawthorn Hawks | U22.5 | 19.9 | 24.6 | UNDER -2.6 |
| Zac Bailey | Brisbane Lions | O21.5 | 22.0 | 22.6 | OVER +0.5 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 187.0 | 187.0 | $1.88 | 31.8% edge | Strong | Model total 213.4 vs market 187.0. Gap: 26.4 points. |
| Prop | Will Ashcroft Under 29.5 | 29.5 | N/A | 4.9% edge | None | Model has Will Ashcroft at 24.6 vs line 29.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Brisbane vs Hawthorn
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Other Round 22 Tips
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