Sydney Swans vs Port Adelaide Power
SCG
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Sydney vs Port Adelaide, Round 22 2026
Sydney Swans 2-3 in last 5. At the SCG, the model sees Sydney winning. Model total 182.1 vs market 176.5. Over 176.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 176.5. Our model puts it at 182.1, a 5.6-point gap. That is a 7.6% edge on the Over 176.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
Sydney Swans
Team news not yet available.
Port Adelaide Power
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Sydney
Sydney hold a Disposals advantage: 361.8 vs 321 per game.
Last 5 Results
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Port Adelaide Power | 90 - 93 | Sydney Swans | Sydney | W | O |
| 2025 | R15 | Port Adelaide Power | 52 - 71 | Sydney Swans | Sydney | L | U |
| 2025 | R6 | Sydney Swans | 77 - 85 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
| 2024 | R21 | Port Adelaide Power | 148 - 36 | Sydney Swans | Port Adelaide | W | O |
| 2023 | R4 | Sydney Swans | 64 - 66 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
Sydney Swans 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Sydney win 90 - 93 at Port Adelaide in R14 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Last five: W W L L W. Sydney are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 96.0 scored and 85.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 361.8. Their home record 9-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L W. Port Adelaide are in the middle of a 4-game losing run. Averaging 70.2 scored and 88.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 50.2. Their away record 2-7 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 176.5 | 176.5 | $1.88 | 7.6% edge | Moderate | Model total 182.1 vs market 176.5. Gap: 5.6 points. |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Sydney vs Port Adelaide
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Other Round 22 Tips
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