St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium
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St Kilda vs Carlton, Round 22 2026
St Kilda Saints 3-2 in last 5. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees St Kilda winning. Model total 182.7 vs market 175.5. St Kilda Saints +5.5 is our top play.
Market has St Kilda by 5.5. Model has St Kilda by 10.7. That 16.2-point gap gives St Kilda a 17.8% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
St Kilda Saints
Team news not yet available.
Carlton Blues
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
St Kilda
St Kilda hold a Disposals advantage: 417.2 vs 390.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
St Kilda
Carlton
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Carlton Blues | 69 - 108 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
| 2025 | R9 | St Kilda Saints | 62 - 77 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | U |
| 2024 | R24 | Carlton Blues | 74 - 76 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | W | U |
| 2023 | R21 | St Kilda Saints | 54 - 73 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | U |
| 2023 | R6 | Carlton Blues | 60 - 82 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
St Kilda Saints 3-2 in last 5. The most recent clash saw St Kilda win 69 - 108 at Carlton in R8 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: L W L W W. St Kilda are in mixed recent form. Averaging 92.0 scored and 78.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 417.2. Their home record 4-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: W W L L W. Carlton are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 89.2 scored and 88.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 53.2. Their away record 4-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda Saints | O30.5 | 35.5 | 33.8 | OVER +5.0 |
| George Hewett | Carlton Blues | O24.5 | 29.4 | 23.4 | OVER +4.9 |
| Patrick Cripps | Carlton Blues | O24.5 | 27.3 | 24.8 | OVER +2.8 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U27.5 | 25.1 | 28.0 | UNDER -2.4 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | St Kilda Saints +5.5 | 5.5 | $1.90 | 17.8% edge | Strong | Model has St Kilda Saints winning by 10.7. Market line: 5.5. Edge: 17.8%. |
| Total | Over 175.5 | 175.5 | $1.88 | 9.8% edge | Strong | Model total 182.7 vs market 175.5. Gap: 7.2 points. |
| Prop | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Over 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 5.0% edge | None | Model has Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 35.5 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on St Kilda vs Carlton
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Other Round 22 Tips
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