Geelong Cats vs Essendon Bombers
GMHBA Stadium
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Geelong vs Essendon, Round 22 2026
Geelong carry a 3-game winning streak into GMHBA Stadium. Model total 187.3 vs market 182.5. Over 182.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 182.5. Our model puts it at 187.3, a 4.8-point gap. That is a 6.6% edge on the Over 182.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 22
Geelong Cats
Team news not yet available.
Essendon Bombers
Team news not yet available.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Geelong
Geelong hold a Disposals advantage: 373.8 vs 328.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Geelong
Essendon
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Geelong Cats | 109 - 65 | Essendon Bombers | Geelong | L | U |
| 2025 | R14 | Essendon Bombers | 56 - 151 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | O |
| 2024 | R16 | Geelong Cats | 105 - 60 | Essendon Bombers | Geelong | W | O |
| 2023 | R18 | Geelong Cats | 122 - 45 | Essendon Bombers | Geelong | W | O |
| 2023 | R7 | Essendon Bombers | 104 - 132 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | O |
Geelong Cats 5-0 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 109 - 65 at Geelong in R22 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L L. Geelong are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 98.0 scored and 90.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 373.8. Their home record 9-1 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L L W L L. Essendon are on two straight losses. Averaging 57.6 scored and 121.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 42. Their away record 0-10 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Durham | Essendon Bombers | U22.5 | 20.2 | 21.8 | UNDER -2.3 |
| Bailey Smith | Geelong Cats | U33.5 | 32.2 | 30.8 | UNDER -1.3 |
| Archie Roberts | Essendon Bombers | U26.5 | 26.1 | 21.8 | UNDER -0.4 |
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | O24.5 | 24.6 | 24.8 | OVER +0.1 |
Over Signal: Andrew McGrath (Essendon Bombers) - h2h_outlier
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 182.5 | 182.5 | $1.88 | 6.6% edge | Moderate | Model total 187.3 vs market 182.5. Gap: 4.8 points. |
| Spread | Geelong Cats -64.5 | -64.5 | $1.90 | 6.4% edge | Moderate | Model has Geelong Cats winning by 70.1. Market line: 64.5. Edge: 6.4%. |
| Prop | Andrew McGrath Over 20.5 | 20.5 | N/A | 6.3% edge | Strong | Model has Andrew McGrath at 26.8 vs line 20.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Geelong vs Essendon
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Other Round 22 Tips
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