Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions
MCG
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Carlton vs Brisbane, Round 21 2026
Brisbane arrive on a 7-game winning run. Model total 200.4 vs market 181.5. Over 181.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 181.5. Our model puts it at 200.4, a 18.9-point gap. That is a 24.3% edge on the Over 181.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Carlton Blues
McKay faces another fitness test while Newman injury forces defensive change. Harry McKay in. Nic Newman out.
Brisbane Lions
Gallop suspension forces one change while Allen continues to press for recall. Darragh Joyce confirmed in. Ty Gallop out. Concerns: Gardiner 1 week, Payne season.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Carlton
Carlton hold a Disposals advantage: 397.8 vs 393.2 per game.
Last 5 Results
Carlton
Brisbane
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Brisbane Lions | 100 - 89 | Carlton Blues | Brisbane | L | O |
| 2025 | R18 | Carlton Blues | 66 - 103 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | U |
| 2024 | GF | Brisbane Lions | 85 - 86 | Carlton Blues | Carlton | L | O |
| 2023 | R8 | Carlton Blues | 74 - 100 | Brisbane Lions | Brisbane | L | U |
Carlton Blues 1-3 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Brisbane win 100 - 89 at Brisbane in R9 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Carlton Blues Form Analysis
Last five: W L L W W. Carlton are in mixed recent form. Averaging 81.8 scored and 85.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 397.8. Their home record 5-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Brisbane are riding a 7-game winning streak. Averaging 123.4 scored and 75.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 60.8. Their away record 7-3 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hewett | Carlton Blues | O24.5 | 30.3 | 22.0 | OVER +5.8 |
| Sam Walsh | Carlton Blues | U29.5 | 25.8 | 29.2 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Lachie Neale | Brisbane Lions | O29.5 | 33.0 | 30.2 | OVER +3.5 |
| Dayne Zorko | Brisbane Lions | U28.5 | 26.5 | 25.4 | UNDER -2.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | Carlton Blues | U28.5 | 28.2 | 27.4 | UNDER -0.3 |
| Zac Bailey | Brisbane Lions | U21.5 | 21.4 | 23.0 | UNDER -0.1 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 181.5 | 181.5 | $1.88 | 24.3% edge | Strong | Model total 200.4 vs market 181.5. Gap: 18.9 points. |
| Spread | Carlton Blues +25.5 | 25.5 | $1.90 | 6.5% edge | Moderate | Model has Brisbane Lions winning by 19.7. Market line: 25.5. Edge: 6.5%. |
| Prop | George Hewett Over 24.5 | 24.5 | N/A | 5.8% edge | None | Model has George Hewett at 30.3 vs line 24.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Carlton vs Brisbane
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Other Round 15 Tips
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