Richmond Tigers vs West Coast Eagles
MCG
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Richmond vs West Coast, Round 21 2026
Richmond Tigers 4-1 in last 5. At the MCG, the model sees West Coast winning. Model has West Coast by 7.4. West Coast Eagles -2.0 is our top play.
Market has Richmond by 2.0. Model has West Coast by 7.4. That 5.4-point gap gives West Coast a 6.2% spread edge.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Richmond Tigers
Miller and Green expected back while Balta remains uncertain. Ben Miller, Steely Green in.
West Coast Eagles
Baker and Graham return to strengthen Eagles midfield. Liam Baker, Jack Graham in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Richmond
Richmond hold a Disposals advantage: 344.8 vs 331.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Richmond
West Coast
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | West Coast Eagles | 88 - 99 | Richmond Tigers | Richmond | L | O |
| 2025 | R19 | West Coast Eagles | 56 - 105 | Richmond Tigers | Richmond | L | O |
| 2025 | R9 | Richmond Tigers | 81 - 79 | West Coast Eagles | Richmond | L | U |
| 2024 | R5 | West Coast Eagles | 109 - 70 | Richmond Tigers | West Coast | W | O |
| 2023 | R18 | West Coast Eagles | 60 - 98 | Richmond Tigers | Richmond | W | U |
Richmond Tigers 4-1 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Richmond win 88 - 99 at West Coast in R8 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Richmond are in the middle of a 8-game losing run. Averaging 61.8 scored and 103.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 344.8. Their home record 1-8 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
West Coast Eagles Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. West Coast are in the middle of a 7-game losing run. Averaging 63.8 scored and 101.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 45. Their away record 1-9 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Short | Richmond Tigers | U23.5 | 18.2 | 21.6 | UNDER -5.3 |
| Tim Kelly | West Coast Eagles | U25.5 | 20.8 | 23.2 | UNDER -4.7 |
| Dion Prestia | Richmond Tigers | U22.5 | 18.6 | 20.2 | UNDER -3.9 |
| Tim Taranto | Richmond Tigers | U26.5 | 23.1 | 25.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Harley Reid | West Coast Eagles | U25.5 | 23.7 | 25.2 | UNDER -1.8 |
| Liam Baker | West Coast Eagles | O18.5 | 19.8 | 17.4 | OVER +1.3 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Coast Eagles -2.0 | -2.0 | $1.90 | 6.2% edge | Moderate | Model has West Coast Eagles winning by 7.4. Market line: 2.0. Edge: 6.2%. |
| Prop | Jayden Short Under 23.5 | 23.5 | N/A | 5.3% edge | None | Model has Jayden Short at 18.2 vs line 23.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Richmond vs West Coast
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Other Round 15 Tips
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