Gold Coast Suns vs Melbourne Demons
People First Stadium
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Gold Coast vs Melbourne, Round 21 2026
Gold Coast Suns 2-3 in last 5. At People First Stadium, the model sees Melbourne winning. Model total 200.1 vs market 180.5. Over 180.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 180.5. Our model puts it at 200.1, a 19.7-point gap. That is a 25.3% edge on the Over 180.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Gold Coast Suns
Several fit options available as Suns seek to end losing streak. Alex Davies, Jake Rogers, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan confirmed in. Concerns: Weller 1-3 weeks.
Melbourne Demons
Kade Chandler, Latrelle Pickett out. Injury concerns: Fritsch ribs test, Jiath leg test, Windsor groin test. Christian Salem, Jake Melksham expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Gold Coast
Gold Coast hold a Tackles advantage: 47.8 vs 52.6 per game.
Last 5 Results
Gold Coast
Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Melbourne Demons | 109 - 89 | Gold Coast Suns | Melbourne | W | O |
| 2025 | R16 | Gold Coast Suns | 104 - 85 | Melbourne Demons | Gold Coast | L | O |
| 2025 | R3 | Melbourne Demons | 62 - 120 | Gold Coast Suns | Gold Coast | L | O |
| 2024 | R23 | Gold Coast Suns | 63 - 117 | Melbourne Demons | Melbourne | L | O |
| 2023 | R8 | Gold Coast Suns | 85 - 90 | Melbourne Demons | Melbourne | W | O |
Gold Coast Suns 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Melbourne win 109 - 89 at Melbourne in R4 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L L. Gold Coast are in the middle of a 9-game losing run. Averaging 68.2 scored and 99.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 359.4. Their home record 6-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Melbourne are in mixed recent form. Averaging 97.4 scored and 85.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 55.6. Their away record 5-5 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Oliver | Melbourne Demons | U29.5 | 24.5 | 30.8 | UNDER -5.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | Melbourne Demons | U23.5 | 18.8 | 20.8 | UNDER -4.7 |
| Touk Miller | Gold Coast Suns | U24.5 | 20.9 | 24.8 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Jake Bowey | Melbourne Demons | U24.5 | 21.1 | 25.6 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Matt Rowell | Gold Coast Suns | O25.5 | 28.7 | 25.8 | OVER +3.2 |
| Noah Anderson | Gold Coast Suns | O27.5 | 28.7 | 26.2 | OVER +1.2 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 180.5 | 180.5 | $1.89 | 25.3% edge | Strong | Model total 200.2 vs market 180.5. Gap: 19.7 points. |
| Prop | Clayton Oliver Under 29.5 | 29.5 | N/A | 5.0% edge | None | Model has Clayton Oliver at 24.5 vs line 29.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Gold Coast vs Melbourne
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Other Round 15 Tips
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