Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows
Marvel Stadium
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Essendon vs Adelaide, Round 21 2026
Essendon Bombers 2-2 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Adelaide winning. Model: Essendon 62.9 - Adelaide 106.4. Jordan Dawson Under 25.5 is our selection.
The market has the total at 172.5. Our model puts it at 169.3, a 3.2-point gap. That is a 4.4% edge on the Under 172.5.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Essendon Bombers
Jordan Ridley out. Injury concerns: Ridley foot TBC, Robey knee TBC. Kyle Langford, Tom Edwards expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Adelaide Crows
Keane and Hinge push to return with several selection options available. Mark Keane, Mitch Hinge, Brayden Cook in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Essendon
Essendon hold a Disposals advantage: 330.8 vs 369.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Essendon
Adelaide
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R2 | Essendon Bombers | 100 - 161 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | O |
| 2024 | R19 | Essendon Bombers | 113 - 115 | Adelaide Crows | Adelaide | L | O |
| 2024 | R6 | Adelaide Crows | 75 - 78 | Essendon Bombers | Essendon | L | U |
| 2023 | R17 | Essendon Bombers | 115 - 97 | Adelaide Crows | Essendon | W | O |
Essendon Bombers 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Adelaide win 100 - 161 at Essendon in R2 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Last five: L W L L L. Essendon are in mixed recent form. Averaging 56.0 scored and 108.2 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 330.8. Their home record 2-7 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis
Last five: L W W W L. Adelaide are in mixed recent form. Averaging 91.8 scored and 79.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 52.8. Their away record 5-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | Adelaide Crows | U25.5 | 20.8 | 25.2 | UNDER -4.7 |
| Zachary Merrett | Essendon Bombers | U27.5 | 25.4 | 23.6 | UNDER -2.1 |
| Josh Worrell | Adelaide Crows | U22.5 | 20.5 | 19.6 | UNDER -2.0 |
| Sam Durham | Essendon Bombers | U22.5 | 20.8 | 22.0 | UNDER -1.7 |
| Archie Roberts | Essendon Bombers | O26.5 | 27.0 | 21.0 | OVER +0.5 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prop | Jordan Dawson Under 25.5 | 25.5 | N/A | 4.7% edge | None | Model has Jordan Dawson at 20.8 vs line 25.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Essendon vs Adelaide
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Other Round 15 Tips
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