Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
UTAS Stadium
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Hawthorn vs North Melbourne, Round 21 2026
Hawthorn carry a 3-game winning streak into UTAS Stadium. Model total 187.1 vs market 175.5. Over 175.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 175.5. Our model puts it at 187.1, a 11.6-point gap. That is a 15.4% edge on the Over 175.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Hawthorn Hawks
Mitch Lewis out. Injury concerns: Amon 1-2 weeks, Hustwaite test. Aidan Schubert, Will McCabe expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Comben fitness test crucial ahead of Hawks clash. Tom Blamires in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Hawthorn
North Melbourne hold a Disposals advantage: 389.8 vs 403.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Hawthorn
North Melbourne
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R16 | Hawthorn Hawks | 150 - 65 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Hawthorn | W | O |
| 2024 | R24 | Hawthorn Hawks | 170 - 46 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Hawthorn | W | O |
| 2024 | R6 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 68 - 113 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | O |
| 2023 | R18 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | 40 - 88 | Hawthorn Hawks | Hawthorn | L | U |
| 2023 | R3 | Hawthorn Hawks | 80 - 61 | North Melbourne Kangaroos | Hawthorn | W | U |
Hawthorn Hawks 5-0 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Hawthorn win 150 - 65 at Hawthorn in R16 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis
Last five: W W W L W. Hawthorn are riding a 3-game winning streak. Averaging 108.6 scored and 67.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 403.8. Their home record 8-2 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
North Melbourne Kangaroos Form Analysis
Last five: L L L L W. North Melbourne are in the middle of a 4-game losing run. Averaging 70.8 scored and 82.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 49.8. Their away record 2-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Sicily | Hawthorn Hawks | U22.5 | 19.1 | 21.8 | UNDER -3.4 |
| Luke Parker | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U25.5 | 23.4 | 26.0 | UNDER -2.1 |
| Jai Newcombe | Hawthorn Hawks | U27.5 | 25.7 | 24.6 | UNDER -1.8 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | North Melbourne Kangaroos | O23.5 | 25.3 | 24.6 | OVER +1.8 |
| Caleb Daniel | North Melbourne Kangaroos | U24.5 | 23.3 | 24.8 | UNDER -1.2 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 175.5 | 175.5 | $1.88 | 15.4% edge | Strong | Model total 187.1 vs market 175.5. Gap: 11.6 points. |
| Spread | Hawthorn Hawks -36.5 | -36.5 | $1.90 | 13.0% edge | Strong | Model has Hawthorn Hawks winning by 48.1. Market line: 36.5. Edge: 13.0%. |
| Prop | James Sicily Under 22.5 | 22.5 | N/A | 3.4% edge | None | Model has James Sicily at 19.1 vs line 22.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Hawthorn vs North Melbourne
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Other Round 15 Tips
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