St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans
Marvel Stadium
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St Kilda vs Sydney, Round 21 2026
St Kilda Saints 2-2 in last 4. At Marvel Stadium, the model sees Sydney winning. Model total 196.6 vs market 183.0. Over 183.0 is our top play.
The market has the total at 183.0. Our model puts it at 196.6, a 13.6-point gap. That is a 18.1% edge on the Over 183.0. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
St Kilda Saints
Max King out. Injury concerns: Marshall back test, Sharman calf test. Rowan Marshall expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Sydney Swans
Cunningham and Wicks both chance to return this week. Harry Cunningham, Sam Wicks in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
St Kilda
St Kilda hold a Disposals advantage: 427.4 vs 362 per game.
Last 5 Results
St Kilda
Sydney
Recent Meetings
Last 4 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 104 - 102 | St Kilda Saints | Sydney | L | O |
| 2025 | R18 | St Kilda Saints | 87 - 92 | Sydney Swans | Sydney | W | O |
| 2024 | R17 | St Kilda Saints | 84 - 82 | Sydney Swans | St Kilda | W | O |
| 2023 | R13 | Sydney Swans | 66 - 80 | St Kilda Saints | St Kilda | L | U |
St Kilda Saints 2-2 in last 4. The most recent clash saw Sydney win 104 - 102 at Sydney in R13 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis
Last five: W L W W L. St Kilda are in mixed recent form. Averaging 86.6 scored and 74.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 427.4. Their home record 4-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Sydney Swans Form Analysis
Last five: W L L W L. Sydney are in mixed recent form. Averaging 91.2 scored and 93.4 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 56. Their away record 5-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | St Kilda Saints | O31.5 | 35.5 | 37.8 | OVER +4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | Sydney Swans | U27.5 | 23.8 | 27.2 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Chad Warner | Sydney Swans | U24.5 | 21.9 | 25.6 | UNDER -2.6 |
| Nick Blakey | Sydney Swans | U24.5 | 22.5 | 23.0 | UNDER -2.0 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 183.0 | 183.0 | $1.88 | 18.1% edge | Strong | Model total 196.6 vs market 183.0. Gap: 13.6 points. |
| Prop | Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Over 31.5 | 31.5 | N/A | 4.0% edge | None | Model has Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera at 35.5 vs line 31.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on St Kilda vs Sydney
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Other Round 15 Tips
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