Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
MCG
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Collingwood vs Geelong, Round 21 2026
Collingwood carry a 6-game winning streak into the MCG. Model total 187.4 vs market 172.5. Over 172.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 172.5. Our model puts it at 187.4, a 14.9-point gap. That is a 19.7% edge on the Over 172.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Collingwood Magpies
Brayden Maynard out. Injury concerns: De Goey illness test, Schultz test, Maynard 3-4 weeks. Lachie Schultz expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Geelong Cats
Dangerfield faces late fitness test while De Koning returns from illness. Sam De Koning in.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Collingwood
Geelong hold a Intercepts advantage: 72.8 vs 62.8 per game.
Last 5 Results
Collingwood
Geelong
Recent Meetings
Last 5 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Geelong Cats | 122 - 68 | Collingwood Magpies | Geelong | W | O |
| 2025 | R8 | Collingwood Magpies | 87 - 90 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | O |
| 2024 | R18 | Collingwood Magpies | 71 - 91 | Geelong Cats | Geelong | L | U |
| 2023 | R22 | Collingwood Magpies | 109 - 101 | Geelong Cats | Collingwood | W | O |
| 2023 | R1 | Geelong Cats | 103 - 125 | Collingwood Magpies | Collingwood | L | O |
Collingwood Magpies 2-3 in last 5. The most recent clash saw Geelong win 122 - 68 at Geelong in R9 2026. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis
Last five: W W W W W. Collingwood are riding a 6-game winning streak. Averaging 99.4 scored and 79.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 376. Their home record 6-4 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis
Last five: W W L L L. Geelong are on back-to-back wins. Averaging 96.6 scored and 96.0 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 59.2. Their away record 2-7 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | Collingwood Magpies | U30.5 | 25.8 | 34.2 | UNDER -4.7 |
| Jordan De Goey | Collingwood Magpies | U21.5 | 17.8 | 23.4 | UNDER -3.7 |
| Dan Houston | Collingwood Magpies | U20.5 | 16.9 | 20.6 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Bailey Smith | Geelong Cats | O30.5 | 31.3 | 30.6 | OVER +0.8 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 172.5 | 172.5 | $1.88 | 19.7% edge | Strong | Model total 187.4 vs market 172.5. Gap: 14.9 points. |
| Prop | Nick Daicos Under 30.5 | 30.5 | N/A | 4.7% edge | None | Model has Nick Daicos at 25.8 vs line 30.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Collingwood vs Geelong
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Other Round 15 Tips
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