Port Adelaide Power vs Greater Western Sydney Giants
Adelaide Oval
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Port Adelaide vs GWS, Round 21 2026
Port Adelaide Power 2-1 in last 3. At Adelaide Oval, the model sees GWS winning. Model total 175.2 vs market 168.5. Over 168.5 is our top play.
The market has the total at 168.5. Our model puts it at 175.2, a 6.7-point gap. That is a 9.1% edge on the Over 168.5. Both squads' defensive stats back the lower total.
Form and Injury Context
Latest information heading into Round 15
Port Adelaide Power
Logan Evans out. Injury concerns: Butters 3-4 weeks, Richards 2-3 weeks, Lukosius TBC. Jacob Wehr, Jackson Mead expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Greater Western Sydney Giants
Finn Callaghan out. Injury concerns: Greene 2-3 weeks, Briggs test, Hannaford test. Kieren Briggs, Jake Riccardi expected to play. Check AFL.com.au for the latest update.
Key Stats Dashboard
Five-game rolling averages - 2026 season
Port Adelaide
GWS hold a Disposals advantage: 381.2 vs 314.4 per game.
Last 5 Results
Port Adelaide
GWS
Recent Meetings
Last 3 matches
| Season | Rnd | Home | Score | Away | Winner | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R13 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 50 - 66 | Port Adelaide Power | Port Adelaide | L | U |
| 2024 | R14 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | 73 - 51 | Port Adelaide Power | GWS | W | U |
| 2023 | R22 | Port Adelaide Power | 136 - 85 | Greater Western Sydney Giants | Port Adelaide | W | O |
Port Adelaide Power 2-1 in last 3. The most recent clash saw Port Adelaide win 50 - 66 at GWS in R13 2025. Three of the last four meetings have produced Under totals.
Form Analysis
Port Adelaide Power Form Analysis
Last five: L L L W W. Port Adelaide are in the middle of a 3-game losing run. Averaging 77.0 scored and 87.8 conceded over the past five games. Their Disposals home average sits at 314.4. Their home record 4-6 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Analysis
Last five: L L W W L. GWS are on two straight losses. Averaging 85.8 scored and 92.6 conceded over the past five games. Their Inside 50s away average sits at 50.4. Their away record 1-8 in 2026 gives context to where they sit right now.
Player Props & Watch List
Model disposal leans and standout performers from recent head-to-heads
| Player | Team | Line | Model | 5g Avg | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Burgoyne | Port Adelaide Power | U21.5 | 16.3 | 19.8 | UNDER -5.2 |
| Lachlan Ash | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U28.5 | 24.9 | 27.0 | UNDER -3.6 |
| Lachie Whitfield | Greater Western Sydney Giants | U28.5 | 27.0 | 25.4 | UNDER -1.5 |
Note: in-play betting on AFL is prohibited online in Australia. All player prop markets must be placed pre-game.
H2H Standout Performers
Ranked Bet Recommendations
| Market | Bet | Line | Price | Edge | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 168.5 | 168.5 | $1.88 | 9.1% edge | Strong | Model total 175.2 vs market 168.5. Gap: 6.7 points. |
| Prop | Jase Burgoyne Under 21.5 | 21.5 | N/A | 5.2% edge | None | Model has Jase Burgoyne at 16.3 vs line 21.5. (price not available from market) |
Prediction & Best Bet
Where to Bet on Port Adelaide vs GWS
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Other Round 15 Tips
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